149 Oak Ln · East Tawakoni, TX 75472

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,697 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1996 0.70 ac lot $103/sqft · 32% below area Est $256k · 32% under ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * * * Highest and Best by 6 PM May 21 * * * * * Welcome to 149 Oak Lane in East Tawakoni, Texas—a rare opportunity to own a private retreat near Lake Tawakoni with four full lots included in the sale. Nestled among mature trees, this property offers the perfect blend of space, flexibility, and laid-back lake living. The home itself provides a cozy and inviting atmosphere, ideal for weekend getaways or full-time living. Inside, you’ll find comfortable living spaces filled with natural light and a layout designed for both relaxing and entertaining. What truly sets this property apart is the inclusion of all four lots, giving you incredible potential—whether you

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Four full lots
• Private retreat

Tags

• PRIVATE RETREAT
• FOUR FULL LOTS
• MATURE TREES
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE
• WATER AND SEPTIC TAPS
• EASY ACCESS TO FISHING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential - single family; Multiple parcel IDs associated with the property
• HOA & community: Voluntary association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (22' x 22', 7' height); Covered parking with 4 covered spaces; 2-space carport
• Security: Audio and video recording consent for visitors (surveillance present)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available and connected; Municipal utility district not present
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Accessible bedroom and accessible doors; Property is not attached
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1996; Preowned
• Exterior features: Acreage lot (approximately 0.7 acre); Lot dimensions about 174 x 174; Community mailbox; All-weather road; Concrete surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on main level; Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite bath; Two additional bedrooms on main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Built-in features; One living area; One dining area; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No specific washer/dryer listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($565/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.5% in East Tawakoni — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,455 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Rains ISD (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #697 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rains El (437 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 21 units permitted in Rains County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.15%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,707
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -31.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
120 Littlefield Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+2%)	10mo	$270,000	$156	80
949 Little Oaks Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-12%)	5mo	$520,000	$347	58
950 Little Oaks Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,544 (-9%)	10mo	$345,000	$223	57
150 Club Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,879 (+11%)	22mo	$549,500	$292	46
608 Oak Leaf Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-12%)	16mo	$285,000	$190	46
1049 E State Highway 276	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-10%)	11mo	$359,000	$236	42
380 Wright Way	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,777 (+5%)	22mo	$348,000	$196	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-25,207
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-17,467
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75472

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$424 /mo · $5,086/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,790

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $97	+0% $47	+5% $-2	+10% $-52
Rent	-10% $-99	-5% $-26	+0% $47	+5% $120	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $92	base $47	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
743 Oak Leaf Trl Point, TX	3.0	1.0	1215	$1,850	$1.52	2d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $175,000 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active Option Contract 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active Option Contract 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active Option Contract 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active Option Contract 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,000 Active Option Contract 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active Option Contract 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active Option Contract 18 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active Option Contract 17 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active Option Contract 16 DOM
11. 2026-05-14
    listed $175,000 Active 1427-char remark
12. 2026-05-03
    historical
13. 2026-04-27
    price $265,000
14. 2026-03-31
    price $270,000
15. 2026-03-18
    listed $275,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,086 · $424/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,086 · $424/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$5,086
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$530
• After-tax cash flow: $1,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rains ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836360
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,836
• Composite: 22.46/100
• National rank: #8106
• State rank: #697 of 826 in TX

Livability — East Tawakoni

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1455
• US rank: #24873

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Tawakoni, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,290

Population outlook (Rains County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,516 people
• By 2030: 11,610 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 11,622 · +0.9%
• By 2050: 11,329 · -1.6%
• By 2075: 10,390 · -9.8%
• By 2100: 8,809 · -23.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Rains

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.9) · D 13.3% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.4pp toward R · 2008: -49.5pp · 2024: -72.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.9 2020: R+71.2 2016: R+71.3 2012: R+61.8 2008: R+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.57%
• Current HPI: 153.54
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-36.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-27 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $270,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $275,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,086 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.