12505 Rollingwood Loop E · Conroe, TX 77303

$198,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1970 0.44 ac lot $213/sqft · 65% above area Est $246k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Attention visionaries and DIY enthusiasts! This spacious older home offers a fantastic foundation and is priced to reflect the opportunity to customize. Boasting an oversized corner lot, the property provides immense outdoor potential for landscaping, additions, or even a pool. Inside, you will find oversized rooms, a highly functional, classic floor plan, and sturdy bones. While the home requires some cosmetic updates, it presents a perfect opportunity for buyers or investors looking to add massive value. Don't miss out on securing a property with this much size, land, and upside! New A/C unit upstairs.

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• 400 parking spots
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Driveway; Has carport
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; North-facing; Corner lot; Subdivision setting; Side yard
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1970
• Exterior features: Deck; Enclosed porch; Fully fenced yard; Fence (back yard); Patio; Private yard; Storage; Shed(s); Screened porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Free‑standing range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedroom on the second floor; 2 possible bedrooms total; Bonus room on the first floor; Office on the first floor
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Tile countertops; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (34.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patterson El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 977 students, 74% FRL); Bozman Int (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 988 students, 68% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 34% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,258 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.81%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,137
• List price: $198,000
• Delta: -19.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11630 Greenfield Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,044 (+12%)	12mo	$235,000	$225	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-50,106
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-76,819
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,565/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,584

Max offer price $158,748

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-110	-5% $-166	+0% $-222	+5% $-278	+10% $-334
Rent	-10% $-325	-5% $-274	+0% $-222	+5% $-171	+10% $-119
Rate	-1.0pp $-122	-0.5pp $-172	base $-222	+0.5pp $-274	+1.0pp $-326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10828 Champion Forest Loop Unit 12125 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	858	$1,010	$1.18	45d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $198,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $198,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $198,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $198,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $198,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $198,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $198,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    historical $198,000 813-char remark
16. 2021-11-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,565 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,623 · $302/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,058/yr (+$172/mo · 131.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$1,565
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,250
• − Management: −$1,250
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$6,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,506
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $198,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Coming Soon $198,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,565 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.