14438 Ribbon Tail · San Antonio, TX 78112

$181,241

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,042 sqft · SingleFamily · 270 Days on market

Built 2025 4,800 sqft lot Est $181k · at est. $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover comfort and style in this open-concept home designed for modern living. The kitchen shines with Whirlpool stainless steel appliances, Woodmont Cody 42-in. upper cabinets, and a Daltile tile backsplash. Relax in the spacious primary bath featuring a raised vanity, upgraded cabinets, and a 42-in. garden tub/shower with Daltile tile surround. Decorative finishes include a Carrara-style entry door, Kwikset Polo interior hardware, 2-in. faux wood blinds, and durable vinyl plank flooring throughout the kitchen, great room, and baths. Outdoors, enjoy a fully sodded yard with an automatic sprinkler system for easy maintenance.

Key facts

• Open-concept home
• Raised vanity
• Upgraded cabinets

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT HOME
• DALTILE TILE BACKSPLASH
• RAISED VANITY
• UPGRADED CABINETS
• 42-IN GARDEN TUB SHOWER
• DALTILE TILE SURROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance resources available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual HOA fee ($350) with a $150 association transfer fee

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-family property (new, approximately 1 year old); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built by KB Home; Subdivision: Southton Cove
• Construction: Cement fiber exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by KB Home; New construction (approx. 1 year)
• Exterior features: Cement fiber exterior; Park/playground in the neighborhood

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen — 8 x 6
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (lower level) — 12 x 11; Second bedroom — 10 x 10
• Flooring: Other (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bathroom with tub/shower combination — 8 x 6
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer and dryer connections; Energy Star certified
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $181k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Highland Forest El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 590 students, 84% FRL); East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 451 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $954 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-299 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 270 days — a 12% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 955% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $149,143 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 270 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.44%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,308
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14438 Ribbon Tail	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,042 (0%)	1mo	$181,241	$174	99
14431 Stinger Hook	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,042 (0%)	5mo	$178,564	$171	95

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-13,242
• Equity at exit: $51,135

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,367
• Equity at exit: $60,288

Cash invested: $50,747 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78112

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 451
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,491 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$950
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$227 /mo · $2,719/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,622

Max offer price $166,295

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $-41	+0% $-103	+5% $-166	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-221	-5% $-162	+0% $-103	+5% $-44	+10% $15
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-57	base $-103	+0.5pp $-150	+1.0pp $-198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,310
• Closing costs: $5,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14050 Southton Rd Elmendorf, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	839	$1,550	$1.85	0d	18	0.44mi
10921 Presa Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,450	$1.07	45d	1	0.96mi
13203 Winemaker Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1486	$1,850	$1.24	25d	1	0.97mi
14007 Southton Basin San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,465	$0.99	45d	1	0.98mi
14023 Southton Basin San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,300	$0.88	25d	1	0.99mi
4343 Open Water San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,595	$1.10	45d	1	1.05mi
4206 Osmosis Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	23d	1	1.18mi
4136 Cove Fls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	0d	1	1.19mi
4110 Cross Current San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	0d	1	1.24mi
4150 Southton Tarn San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,100	$0.89	25d	1	1.25mi
4138 Southton Tarn San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	0d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   historical Active Option
3. 2026-04-10
   price $181,241
4. 2026-03-27
   status Back on Market
5. 2026-03-20
   historical Active Option
6. 2026-03-14
   price $179,241
7. 2026-02-28
   price $182,241
8. 2026-02-07
   price $175,241
9. 2026-01-27
   price $180,241
10. 2026-01-20
    price $190,241
11. 2026-01-19
    status Back on Market
12. 2026-01-16
    historical Active Option
13. 2026-01-10
    price $170,241
14. 2026-01-03
    price $185,241
15. 2025-12-20
    price $190,241
16. 2025-12-13
    price $180,241
17. 2025-11-29
    price $185,241
18. 2025-11-28
    status Back on Market
19. 2025-11-07
    status Pending
20. 2025-11-07
    historical Active Option
21. 2025-10-24
    price $172,741
22. 2025-10-21
    price $182,741
23. 2025-10-21
    status Back on Market
24. 2025-10-03
    historical Active Option
25. 2025-09-27
    price $177,241
26. 2025-09-26
    status Back on Market
27. 2025-09-12
    historical Active Option
28. 2025-09-03
    price $176,841
29. 2025-08-23
    price $174,841
30. 2025-08-22
    status Back on Market
31. 2025-07-25
    historical Active Option
32. 2025-07-19
    price $168,841
33. 2025-07-18
    status Back on Market
34. 2025-07-14
    historical Active Option
35. 2025-07-11
    price $171,841
36. 2025-07-07
    listed $17,184 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,152
• − Property taxes: −$2,719
• − Insurance: −$906
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,432
• − Management: −$1,432
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$5,272
• Taxable loss: −$4,364
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,047
• After-tax cash flow: $-192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 9,959

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 39% White 24% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 64%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Current HPI: 276.3302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+954.7% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $181,241 LERA
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-03-20 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $179,241 LERA
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $182,241 LERA
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $175,241 LERA
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $180,241 LERA
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $190,241 LERA
• 2026-01-19 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-01-16 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $170,241 LERA
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $185,241 LERA
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $190,241 LERA
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $180,241 LERA
• 2025-11-29 Price Changed $185,241 LERA
• 2025-11-28 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-11-07 Pending — LERA
• 2025-11-07 Contingent — LERA
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $172,741 LERA
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $182,741 LERA
• 2025-10-21 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-10-03 Contingent — LERA
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $177,241 LERA
• 2025-09-26 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-09-12 Contingent — LERA
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $176,841 LERA
• 2025-08-23 Price Changed $174,841 LERA
• 2025-08-22 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-07-25 Contingent — LERA
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $168,841 LERA
• 2025-07-18 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-07-14 Contingent — LERA
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $171,841 LERA
• 2025-07-07 Listed $17,184 LERA