650 Duval St · Baldwin, FL 32234

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1996 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This mobile home offers an opportunity for investors, cash buyers, or those looking for a renovation project on a private lot. The property features a storage shed and spacious outdoor area with plenty of potential to make it your own. Interior repairs and updates are needed, making this a great fixer-upper opportunity. Conveniently located with easy access to nearby shopping, dining, and major roadways while still offering a more private setting. Property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Private lot
• Storage shed
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• STORAGE SHED
• SPACIOUS OUTDOOR AREA
• PRIVATE LOT
• FIXER-UPPER OPPORTUNITY
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single wide mobile home; One story; Property is attached
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Chain link full fencing; Shed(s) on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level); Total rooms: 4
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Open floor plan; Primary bathroom with tub and shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $812 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#575 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 234 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $446 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.14%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $50,905
• Equity at exit: $30,995

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $126,268
• Equity at exit: $39,103

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32234

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,810 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $692/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $812

Break-even live

Break-even rent $782

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $868	-5% $840	+0% $812	+5% $784	+10% $756
Rent	-10% $669	-5% $740	+0% $812	+5% $883	+10% $955
Rate	-1.0pp $862	-0.5pp $837	base $812	+0.5pp $786	+1.0pp $760

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
512 US Highway 301 S Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,195	$1.66	5d	1	0.50mi
379 Orange Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,700	$1.69	24d	1	0.63mi
379 Orange Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,700	$1.69	21d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricestatus $99,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   status $185,000 Pending 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $185,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $185,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $692 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $822 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$129/yr (+$11/mo · 18.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$692
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,738
• − Management: −$1,738
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $8,631
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,072
• After-tax cash flow: $7,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Baldwin

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #575
• US rank: #10929

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baldwin, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,678
• Household income: $87,331
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Current HPI: 288.4613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $195,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $692 · +15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.