11864 Gorsline Rd · Brownlee Park, MI 49014

$69,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,597 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1840 10 ac lot ↓ 50% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 10.15 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1840

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $826 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 3.8% in Brownlee Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#429 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pennfield Schools (rural): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #407 of 540 in MI (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 132 units permitted in Calhoun County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calhoun County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1840 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $69,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1840 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.62%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $41,327
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $103,976
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49014

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,742 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,862/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $826

Break-even live

Break-even rent $697

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-10-05
   listed $69,900
2. 2025-10-05
   historical
3. 2003-02-25
   soldstatus $73,500
4. 2002-08-19
   soldstatus $72,000
5. 2002-07-02
   soldstatus $73,500
6. 2002-06-14
   soldstatus $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,862 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,862 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,862
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,673
• − Management: −$1,673
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $9,403
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,257
• After-tax cash flow: $7,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pennfield Schools
• NCES district ID: 2627810
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,548
• Composite: 22.27/100
• National rank: #8142
• State rank: #407 of 540 in MI

Livability — Brownlee Park

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #429
• US rank: #11906

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Calhoun County · 91,590 people
• Metro: Battle Creek, MI
• Population (ZIP): 21,980
• Household income: $69,009
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Calhoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 130,157 people
• By 2030: 126,691 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 118,517 · -8.9%
• By 2050: 109,855 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 90,486 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 70,766 · -45.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calhoun

• 2024 margin: R (+14.1) · D 42.3% · R 56.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.4pp toward R · 2008: 9.4pp · 2024: -14.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.1 2020: R+11.1 2016: R+12.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.29%
• Current HPI: 241.3422
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Battle Creek, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-50.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-05 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-05 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records
• 2002-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2002-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records
• 2002-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,862 · -53.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.