3515 Atlas Point Ln · Angleton, TX 77515

$251,001

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,410 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $69/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Pelham Floor Plan - This two-story home has a versatile layout that is perfect for families who need privacy. Two bedrooms are on the first floor, including the owner’s suite which features a private bathroom and walk-in closet. Also on the first floor is the open concept living area, which offers access to a back patio. Upstairs are two additional bedrooms, which center around a game room loft. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Game room loft
• Pelham floor plan
• Two story home

Tags

• PELHAM FLOOR PLAN
• TWO STORY HOME
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• BACK PATIO
• GAME ROOM LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by Preferred Management Services; Annual association fee of $825

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Built in 2026; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and stucco construction; New construction by Lennar Homes
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedroom on the first floor; Two bedrooms on the second floor; Total of 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Separate shower; Tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $251,001 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $308,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $251k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-392 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (5.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Angleton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in TX, #4,520 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rancho Isabella El (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 418 students, 68% FRL); Angleton J H School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,561 students, 68% FRL); Angleton H S (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,066 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 932 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,425 (5.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.52%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,490
• List price: $251,001
• Delta: -18.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2130 Mosaic Valley Ct	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,410 (0%)	2mo	$352,990	$146	94
28815 Golden Wheat Ct	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,263 (-6%)	1mo	$350,990	$155	85
2103 Mosaic Valley Ct	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,263 (-6%)	1mo	$313,990	$139	85
2010 Starlight St	0.06mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,488 (+3%)	2mo	$319,990	$129	84
3507 Atlas Point Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,539 (+5%)	0mo	$265,790	$105	83
2119 Mosaic Valley Ct	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,263 (-6%)	2mo	$310,990	$137	83
1935 Stargazer Ln	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,229 (-8%)	0mo	$252,990	$113	83
3623 Atlas Point Ln	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,263 (-6%)	1mo	$311,990	$138	81
3552 Atlas Point Ln	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,073 (-14%)	1mo	$279,990	$135	70
1523 Windrose Bnd	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,388 (-1%)	1mo	$299,500	$125	70
2943 Summer Breeze Way	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,066 (-14%)	2mo	$292,990	$142	42
2931 Summer Breeze Way	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,066 (-14%)	2mo	$292,990	$142	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-74,818
• Equity at exit: $45,997

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-96,791
• Equity at exit: $26,673

Cash invested: $86,377 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77515

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 932
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,618
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,627/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,870

Max offer price $251,810

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-179	-5% $-285	+0% $-392	+5% $-498	+10% $-605
Rent	-10% $-579	-5% $-485	+0% $-392	+5% $-298	+10% $-204
Rate	-1.0pp $-236	-0.5pp $-313	base $-392	+0.5pp $-472	+1.0pp $-553

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,122
• Closing costs: $9,255
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3606 Atlas Point Ln Angleton, TX	3.0	2.0	1876	$2,250	$1.20	0d	1	0.12mi
513 Robin St Angleton, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,495	$1.31	24d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $251,001 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $251,001 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $251,001 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $251,001 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $251,001 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $251,001 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $251,001 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $251,001 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $251,001 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-05-13
    price $251,001 373-char remark
11. 2026-05-11
    listed $251,001 Active 564-char remark
12. 2026-05-11
    historical
13. 2026-05-08
    price $262,140 373-char remark
14. 2026-05-05
    price $271,990 373-char remark
15. 2026-05-04
    price $271,990
16. 2026-05-01
    price $275,340 373-char remark
17. 2026-04-30
    price $275,340
18. 2026-04-28
    price $284,990
19. 2026-04-28
    price $284,990 373-char remark
20. 2026-04-10
    price $292,940 373-char remark
21. 2026-04-09
    price $292,940
22. 2026-04-04
    price $297,940 373-char remark
23. 2026-04-03
    price $297,940
24. 2026-03-28
    price $303,090 373-char remark
25. 2026-03-24
    listed $350,990 Active
26. 2026-03-23
    listed $350,990 Active 373-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,280
• − Property taxes: −$4,627
• − Insurance: −$2,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,279
• − Management: −$2,279
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$8,974
• Taxable loss: −$10,117
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,428
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can increase the home's value
• Resale Flooring — New flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can increase the home's value ↑
• Resale Flooring — New flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Angleton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808310
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,670
• Composite: 35.01/100
• National rank: #5046
• State rank: #375 of 826 in TX

Livability — Angleton

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 34,088
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,088
• Household income: $88,787
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 785.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.59%
• Current HPI: 288.7286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-28.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $251,001 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $271,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $275,340 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $284,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $292,940 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $297,940 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $350,990 HARMLS