627 Deer St · Dunkirk, NY 14048

$130,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,256 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1905 3,500 sqft lot $58/sqft · 10% below area Est $144k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 627 Deer Street in Dunkirk, New York! This versatile property features two separate units, each offering 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. The upper unit has been fully renovated and is ready for a new tenant, with modern finishes and a fresh feel throughout. The property also boasts utility upgrades, like new water tanks and an upgraded furnace, and the roof is only four years old. This is a fantastic opportunity for an investor or someone looking to live in one unit and rent out the other—or even rent out both units as a full investment property.

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Four years old roof
• New water tanks

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• UTILITY UPGRADES
• NEW WATER TANKS
• UPGRADED FURNACE
• FOUR YEARS OLD ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $663 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $332/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 7.4% in Dunkirk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $130k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $122,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.86%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,990
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -9.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37 E 6th St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,203 (-2%)	1mo	$37,000	$17	85
77 King St	0.22mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,370 (+5%)	5mo	$82,000	$35	72
123 Ruggles St	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,146 (-5%)	7mo	$87,000	$41	71
77 E 7th St	0.08mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,230 (-1%)	21mo	$130,000	$58	68
706 Main St	0.13mi	4/2.0	2,099 (-7%)	18mo	$88,000	$42	67
421 Dove St	0.55mi	4/2.0	2,314 (+3%)	9mo	$100,000	$43	62
522 Park Ave	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,052 (-9%)	20mo	$98,500	$48	61
51 Ruggles St	0.30mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,280 (+1%)	24mo	$110,000	$48	59
25 E Talcott St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,941 (-14%)	5mo	$80,000	$41	45
4 Taft Pl	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,943 (-14%)	21mo	$105,000	$54	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $71,705
• Equity at exit: $73,123

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $180,563
• Equity at exit: $125,752

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14048

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,960 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,793/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $663

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,121

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 61%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$1,960
Total (2 units)			$1,960

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $130,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $140,000 Active 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    Welcome to 627 Deer Street in Dunkirk, New York! This versatile property features two separate units, each offering 2 bedrooms and 1 bath. The upper unit has been fully renovated and is ready for a new tenant, with modern finishes and a fresh feel throughout. The property also boasts utility upgrades, like new water tanks and an upgraded furnace, and the roof is only four years old. This is a fantastic opportunity for an investor or someone looking to live in one unit and rent out the other—or even rent out both units as a full investment property.

16. 2018-05-07
    soldstatus $40,000 Closed Sale or Rented 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Want a tenant to pay for your mortgage and live for free? Great 2 unit with huge double lot backyard that has road frontage along the front and the back of the lot as well! The yard goes from street, all the way to the next street in back! Vinyl sided, enclosed back porch, basement and attic. Upper unit has a long term tenant and the lower unit is now vacant so an owner occupant can move into the lower apartment if they wish! Nicely kept up, appliances , both units have very large kitchen, plus dining rooms. Both apartments also have laundry facilities in their apartments!! Each apartment has 2 bedrooms, living room, bathroom, kitchen, dining room and laundry room. Lower apartment has a rear enclosed porch. Each has own storage space(attic or basement). Clean and updated apartments!!

17. 2018-04-27
    soldstatus $40,000
18. 2018-03-22
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Want a tenant to pay for your mortgage and live for free? Great 2 unit with huge double lot backyard that has road frontage along the front and the back of the lot as well! The yard goes from street, all the way to the next street in back! Vinyl sided, enclosed back porch, basement and attic. Upper unit has a long term tenant and the lower unit is now vacant so an owner occupant can move into the lower apartment if they wish! Nicely kept up, appliances , both units have very large kitchen, plus dining rooms. Both apartments also have laundry facilities in their apartments!! Each apartment has 2 bedrooms, living room, bathroom, kitchen, dining room and laundry room. Lower apartment has a rear enclosed porch. Each has own storage space(attic or basement). Clean and updated apartments!!

19. 2018-01-29
    listed $48,750 Active 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Want a tenant to pay for your mortgage and live for free? Great 2 unit with huge double lot backyard that has road frontage along the front and the back of the lot as well! The yard goes from street, all the way to the next street in back! Vinyl sided, enclosed back porch, basement and attic. Upper unit has a long term tenant and the lower unit is now vacant so an owner occupant can move into the lower apartment if they wish! Nicely kept up, appliances , both units have very large kitchen, plus dining rooms. Both apartments also have laundry facilities in their apartments!! Each apartment has 2 bedrooms, living room, bathroom, kitchen, dining room and laundry room. Lower apartment has a rear enclosed porch. Each has own storage space(attic or basement). Clean and updated apartments!!

20. 2008-08-04
    soldstatus $28,000
21. 2008-08-01
    soldstatus $28,000
22. 2008-04-10
    listed $30,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,793 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,995 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$202/yr (+$17/mo · 11.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,793
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,882
• − Management: −$1,882
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $6,250
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,500
• After-tax cash flow: $6,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunkirk City School District
• NCES district ID: 3609420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,345
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7190
• State rank: #575 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #7421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, NY
• City population: 14,949
• Population (ZIP): 14,949

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 325.9188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+359.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $140,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-05-07 Sold (MLS) $40,000 UNYREIS
• 2018-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-22 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2018-01-29 Listed $48,750 UNYREIS
• 2008-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 2008-08-01 Sold (MLS) $28,000 UNYREIS
• 2008-04-10 Listed $30,500 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,793 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.