2291 Trinity Club Dr · Kinston, NC 28504

$150,000

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,226 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1980 0.35 ac lot Est $194k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home has had a complete face-lift. Freshly painted, new flooring, replacement windows & new roof. Large screened in porch off rear of home. All the buyers will need to do is move right in. A MUST SEE-exterior is vinyl with attached garage. Gas logs in fireplace are ''as is''

Key facts

• Convenient location
• Renovated roof
• 0.35 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• RENOVATED ROOF
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned RA
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-facing garage (1 car); Paved parking
• Utilities: Water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Entry level 1; Has a view
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Brick/mortar foundation; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Screened rear porch; Open lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Master on main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Master bedroom located on the main level; Gas log fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($975/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.8% in Kinston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#640 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Banks Elementary (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #806 of 1,410 statewide, top 57%, 462 students, 99% FRL); E B Frink Middle (math 35% / reading 35%, grade F, #286 of 475 statewide, top 61%, 540 students, 99% FRL); North Lenoir High (math 52% / reading 36%, grade F, #367 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 975 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 65% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,640 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.32%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,708
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3314 Dobbs Farm Rd	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,151 (-6%)	14mo	$175,000	$152	60
1970 Hullwood Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,324 (+8%)	9mo	$225,000	$170	56
3444 Dobbs Farm Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,363 (+11%)	14mo	$215,000	$158	55
2236 Longleaf Pine Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,312 (+7%)	10mo	$170,000	$130	54
3322 Dobbs Farm Rd	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,348 (+10%)	20mo	$149,500	$111	47
2836 Poole Rd	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-10%)	19mo	$210,000	$191	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-19,165
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,159
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28504

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,306 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,220/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,204

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $124	+0% $81	+5% $39	+10% $-4
Rent	-10% $-22	-5% $30	+0% $81	+5% $133	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $157	-0.5pp $119	base $81	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $150,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-05-25
   listed $150,000 Active
8. 2021-03-08
   soldstatus $120,000 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Home has had a complete face-lift. Freshly painted, new flooring, replacement windows & new roof. Large screened in porch off rear of home. All the buyers will need to do is move right in. A MUST SEE-exterior is vinyl with attached garage. Gas logs in fireplace are ''as is''

9. 2021-03-08
   soldstatus $120,000

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Home has had a complete face-lift. Freshly painted, new flooring, replacement windows & new roof. Large screened in porch off rear of home. All the buyers will need to do is move right in. A MUST SEE-exterior is vinyl with attached garage. Gas logs in fireplace are ''as is''

10. 2021-01-08
    listed $124,900 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Home has had a complete face-lift. Freshly painted, new flooring, replacement windows & new roof. Large screened in porch off rear of home. All the buyers will need to do is move right in. A MUST SEE-exterior is vinyl with attached garage. Gas logs in fireplace are ''as is''

11. 2020-08-06
    soldstatus $45,000
12. 2020-08-05
    soldstatus $45,000 60-char remark

    Show marketing remark (60 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 1 Car Garage Attached, Covered Back Porch

13. 2020-01-10
    listed $47,900 60-char remark

    Show marketing remark (60 chars)

    3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 1 Car Garage Attached, Covered Back Porch

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,220 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$10/yr (+$1/mo · 0.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,220
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,254
• − Management: −$1,254
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,568
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$376
• After-tax cash flow: $1,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lenoir County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702610
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,958
• Composite: 25.17/100
• National rank: #7515
• State rank: #147 of 178 in NC

Livability — Kinston

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #640
• US rank: #23267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lenoir County · 20,407 people
• City population: 20,407
• Metro: Kinston, NC
• Population (ZIP): 20,407
• Household income: $53,583
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 575.0

Population outlook (Lenoir County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,002 people
• By 2030: 53,048 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 49,041 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 45,136 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 36,547 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 27,731 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenoir

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.8) · D 46.2% · R 53.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -6.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.8 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+6.3 2012: R+1.5 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.45%
• Current HPI: 201.8226
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kinston, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+213.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $150,000 Hive MLS
• 2021-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-08 Sold (MLS) $120,000 Hive MLS
• 2021-01-08 Listed $124,900 Hive MLS
• 2020-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-05 Sold (MLS) $45,000 Hive MLS
• 2020-01-10 Listed $47,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,220 · +48.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.