31 Gulf Ln · Brownsville, TX 78521

$67,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 338 Days on market

Built 1995 6,178 sqft lot ↓ 20% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this charming mobile home in the Winter Haven Resort! This cozy residence features one bedroom, one bathroom, comfortable living and dining areas, and a separate workshop for your hobbies or storage needs. Located in Winter Haven, an exclusive 55+ community, you'll enjoy top-notch amenities including a clubhouse, three heated pools, tennis courts, a pickleball court, and a putting green.

Key facts

• Heated pools
• Pickleball court
• Clubhouse

Tags

• SEPARATE WORKSHOP
• EXCLUSIVE COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE
• HEATED POOLS
• TENNIS COURTS
• PICKLEBALL COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $67k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($975 rent vs $67k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime D-.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 365 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $463 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 338 days — a 12% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 338 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.55%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-39
• Equity at exit: $9,990

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $31,129
• Equity at exit: $5,793

Cash invested: $18,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78521

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,150/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $865

Max offer price $67,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $106	+0% $87	+5% $68	+10% $49
Rent	-10% $10	-5% $48	+0% $87	+5% $125	+10% $164
Rate	-1.0pp $120	-0.5pp $104	base $87	+0.5pp $69	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,750
• Closing costs: $2,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2644 Old Port Isabel Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0	1.0	640	$825	$1.29	15d	1	0.70mi
2616 Old Port Isabel Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0	1.0	677	$850	$1.26	45d	1	0.77mi
2700 Farm to Market Road 802 Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,314	$1.33	15d	8	1.26mi
3301 Coffee Rd Trlr 25 Brownsville, TX	1.0	1.0	462	$750	$1.62	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,000 Active 338 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,000 Active 337 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,000 Active 336 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,000 Active 335 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $67,000 Active 333 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,000 Active 332 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $67,000 Active 330 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,000 Active 329 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,000 Active 328 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,000 Active 327 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $67,000 Active 324 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $67,000 Active 323 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,000 Active 322 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,000 Active 321 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,000 Active 320 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $67,000 Active 319 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $67,000 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Discover this charming mobile home in the Winter Haven Resort! This cozy residence features one bedroom, one bathroom, comfortable living and dining areas, and a separate workshop for your hobbies or storage needs. Located in Winter Haven, an exclusive 55+ community, you'll enjoy top-notch amenities including a clubhouse, three heated pools, tennis courts, a pickleball court, and a putting green.

18. 2025-12-26
    status Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Discover this charming mobile home in the Winter Haven Resort! This cozy residence features one bedroom, one bathroom, comfortable living and dining areas, and a separate workshop for your hobbies or storage needs. Located in Winter Haven, an exclusive 55+ community, you'll enjoy top-notch amenities including a clubhouse, three heated pools, tennis courts, a pickleball court, and a putting green.

19. 2025-12-20
    historical 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Discover this charming mobile home in the Winter Haven Resort! This cozy residence features one bedroom, one bathroom, comfortable living and dining areas, and a separate workshop for your hobbies or storage needs. Located in Winter Haven, an exclusive 55+ community, you'll enjoy top-notch amenities including a clubhouse, three heated pools, tennis courts, a pickleball court, and a putting green.

20. 2025-12-12
    status Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Discover this charming mobile home in the Winter Haven Resort! This cozy residence features one bedroom, one bathroom, comfortable living and dining areas, and a separate workshop for your hobbies or storage needs. Located in Winter Haven, an exclusive 55+ community, you'll enjoy top-notch amenities including a clubhouse, three heated pools, tennis courts, a pickleball court, and a putting green.

21. 2025-12-06
    status Pending 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Discover this charming mobile home in the Winter Haven Resort! This cozy residence features one bedroom, one bathroom, comfortable living and dining areas, and a separate workshop for your hobbies or storage needs. Located in Winter Haven, an exclusive 55+ community, you'll enjoy top-notch amenities including a clubhouse, three heated pools, tennis courts, a pickleball court, and a putting green.

22. 2025-10-16
    price $72,000 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Discover this charming mobile home in the Winter Haven Resort! This cozy residence features one bedroom, one bathroom, comfortable living and dining areas, and a separate workshop for your hobbies or storage needs. Located in Winter Haven, an exclusive 55+ community, you'll enjoy top-notch amenities including a clubhouse, three heated pools, tennis courts, a pickleball court, and a putting green.

23. 2025-06-25
    listed $83,500 Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    Discover this charming mobile home in the Winter Haven Resort! This cozy residence features one bedroom, one bathroom, comfortable living and dining areas, and a separate workshop for your hobbies or storage needs. Located in Winter Haven, an exclusive 55+ community, you'll enjoy top-notch amenities including a clubhouse, three heated pools, tennis courts, a pickleball court, and a putting green.

24. 1995-10-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,150 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,150 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone A · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,753
• − Property taxes: −$2,150
• − Insurance: −$1,838
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$936
• − Management: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$1,949
• Taxable income: $138
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$33
• After-tax cash flow: $1,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 87,380
• Household income: $44,509
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2682.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 45% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.45%
• Current HPI: 232.1072
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $67,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-12-26 Relisted — RGVMLS
• 2025-12-20 Delisted — RGVMLS
• 2025-12-12 Relisted — RGVMLS
• 2025-12-06 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $72,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $83,500 RGVMLS
• 1995-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,150 · +30.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.