DOWNING Plan · Bolivia, NC 28422

$264,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,257 sqft · SingleFamily · 187 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome the Downing a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, you'll find 1,257 square feet of comfortable living. The living area is an open concept, where your kitchen, living, and dining areas blend seamlessly into a space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. This appealing one-story layout optimizes living space with an open concept kitchen situated in between the living room and dining room and all bedrooms upstairs. The living room overlooks a covered patio perfect for relaxing and entertaining outdoors. The kitchen features shaker-style cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, which are sure to both turn heads and make meal prep easy.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 186 days

🏗️ New construction. The $264,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $286,003.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in Bolivia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#549 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Supply Elementary (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #625 of 1,410 statewide, top 45%, 539 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 867 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,003
• List price: $264,999
• Delta: -7.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
185 Kite Cir NE	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,299 (+3%)	1mo	$262,000	$202	79
1582 Raptor Ter NE Lot 306	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,281 (+2%)	2mo	$236,000	$184	77
1566 E White Egret Ln NE Lot 734	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,281 (+2%)	2mo	$272,990	$213	72
1573 E White Egret Ln NE Lot 727	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,281 (+2%)	2mo	$264,999	$207	71
199 Kite Cir NE Lot 607	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,281 (+2%)	15mo	$256,590	$200	70
1539 W White Egret Ln NE Lot 761	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,281 (+2%)	2mo	$254,999	$199	69
185 Kite Cir NE Lot 609	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,281 (+2%)	16mo	$256,000	$200	69
1061 High Tide St SE #26	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,202 (-4%)	10mo	$244,000	$203	63
1523 White Egret Ln NE Lot 757	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,281 (+2%)	11mo	$249,999	$195	60
1503 W White Egret Ln NE Lot 752	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,281 (+2%)	7mo	$254,999	$199	59
258 Ocean Pointe Blvd SE #43	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,202 (-4%)	11mo	$249,300	$207	56
1073 High Tide St SE #29	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,202 (-4%)	12mo	$262,000	$218	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-53,611
• Equity at exit: $42,644

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-55,941
• Equity at exit: $24,728

Cash invested: $80,081 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.7 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,999 ($195/sqft)
• Median days on market: 120 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28422

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 867
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,500
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$358 /mo · $4,290/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,502

Max offer price $269,413

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $-16	+0% $-115	+5% $-213	+10% $-312
Rent	-10% $-301	-5% $-208	+0% $-115	+5% $-22	+10% $72
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-42	base $-115	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,501
• Closing costs: $8,580
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 Kite Cir NE Bolivia, NC	3.0	2.0	1339	$2,195	$1.64	51d	1	0.15mi
310 Kite Cir NE Bolivia, NC	3.0	2.0	1339	$2,195	$1.64	10d	1	0.15mi
3009 Surfwatch Dr SE Bolivia, NC	2.0–4.0	2.0	1743	$2,304	$1.32	2d	12	0.99mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1815 Black Falcon Ln NE, Bolivia NC 28422Listing status: ActiveLast updated: May 21, 2026
• Financial info: List price $278,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: Single-family plan named DOWNINGNew construction (Plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 1,257 finished area)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $264,999 Active 187 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $264,999 Active 186 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $264,999 Active 185 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $264,999 Active 184 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $264,999 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $264,999 Active 181 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $264,999 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $264,999 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $264,999 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $264,999 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $264,999 Active 176 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $264,999 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $264,999 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $264,999 Active 173 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $264,999 Active 172 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $264,999 Active 171 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $264,999 Active 170 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $264,999 Active 169 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $264,999 Active 168 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $264,999 Active 167 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $264,999 Active 166 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $264,999 Active 165 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $264,999 Active 164 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $264,999 Active 163 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $264,999 Active 162 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $264,999 Active 161 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $264,999 Active 160 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $264,999 Active 159 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    price $264,999 Active 158 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $278,990 Active 158 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $278,990 Active 157 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $278,990 Active 156 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $278,990 Active 155 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $278,990 Active 154 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $278,990 Active 153 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $278,990 Active 152 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $278,990 Active 151 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $278,990 Active 150 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $278,990 Active 149 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $278,990 Active 148 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $278,990 Active 147 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $278,990 Active 146 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $278,990 Active 145 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $278,990 Active 143 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $278,990 Active 142 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $278,990 Active 141 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $278,990 Active 140 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $278,990 Active 139 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $278,990 Active 138 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $278,990 Active 137 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,021
• − Property taxes: −$4,290
• − Insurance: −$1,430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,263
• − Management: −$2,263
• − Depreciation: −$8,320
• Taxable loss: −$6,304
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,513
• After-tax cash flow: $137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,285–$18,855 screening

This Downing plan home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance. The highest-ROI updates to increase its value are painting the exterior siding and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Supply Elementary F NC #625/1,410 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Cedar Grove Middle F NC #305/475 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High South Brunswick High C+ NC #216/535 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Bolivia

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #20206

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 152,111 people
• City population: 10,059
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,059
• Household income: $69,412
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own

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Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.19%
• Current HPI: 141.1956
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1815 Black Falcon Ln NE, Bolivia NC 28422Listing status: ActiveLast updated: May 21, 2026
• Financial info: List price $278,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: Single-family plan named DOWNINGNew construction (Plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (approx. 1,257 finished area)