3818 Stacy Dr · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31204

$125,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 1960 0.52 ac lot $104/sqft · 25% above area Est $100k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Solid Brick Home Near Macon Mall & Atrium Health Amphitheater! Welcome home to this well-maintained solid brick beauty nestled in a quiet, established neighborhood just minutes from the Macon Mall, the exciting new Atrium Health Amphitheater, shopping, restaurants, and all major city amenities! This inviting home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, offering the perfect blend of comfort and functionality. Step inside to a large living room ideal for relaxing or entertaining, and enjoy the convenience of the kitchen layout with plenty of space for family meals and gatherings. The carpet needs to be replaced, and paint updated in the bedrooms. Sold as is. Outside, you'll love the covered carport and the expansive half-acre fenced lot, providing endless potential for outdoor living, pets, gardening, or future upgrades. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer looking for the perfect starter home or an investor seeking a great opportunity, this property is truly a dream come true. Schedule your private showing today—this one won't last long!

Key facts

• Half-acre fenced lot
• Covered carport
• Solid brick home

Tags

• SOLID BRICK HOME
• COVERED CARPORT
• HALF-ACRE FENCED LOT
• QUIET ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $125k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.06%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,285
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 24.64%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3938 Hartness St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+4%)	1mo	$155,000	$124	80
4220 Mark Pl	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,275 (+6%)	2mo	$75,000	$59	71
4210 Carlo Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	9mo	$147,000	$118	66
1585 Westminister Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,275 (+6%)	1mo	$143,000	$112	64
3936 Hartness St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+10%)	12mo	$85,000	$64	60
3921 Hartness St	0.29mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,245 (+4%)	21mo	$70,100	$56	58
3921 Hartness St	0.29mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,245 (+4%)	21mo	$70,100	$56	58
4940 Log Cabin Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,270 (+6%)	10mo	$55,000	$43	54
1919 Bethlea Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-7%)	1mo	$110,000	$98	52
4035 Kurt Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+12%)	15mo	$163,300	$121	49
3867 Atwood Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+12%)	17mo	$169,000	$125	46
4692 Bloomfield Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,131 (-6%)	21mo	$110,000	$97	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-8,937
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $12,452
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31204

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,182 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $939/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $995

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $183	+0% $148	+5% $112	+10% $77
Rent	-10% $54	-5% $101	+0% $148	+5% $194	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $179	base $148	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4228 Mark Pl Macon, GA	4.0	1.5	1000	$1,300	$1.30	14d	1	0.36mi
3645 Mercer University Dr Macon, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0	874	$850	$0.97	45d	4	0.47mi
1835 Bethlea Ave Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	45d	1	0.73mi
4265 Hillary Pl Macon, GA	4.0	2.0	1250	$1,450	$1.16	45d	1	0.90mi
4158 Log Cabin Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,375	$1.00	22d	1	1.00mi
1000 Crystal Lake Cir Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,063	$0.81	45d	1	1.01mi
1782 Eveline Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	45d	1	1.01mi
4995 Bloomfield Rd Macon, GA	2.0	1.5	900	$997	$1.11	22d	1	1.06mi
4151 Log Cabin Dr Macon, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,434	$1.72	45d	1	1.07mi
1208 Fourth Ave W Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	960	$825	$0.86	45d	1	1.14mi
1596 Burton Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1117	$895	$0.80	14d	1	1.16mi
4053 Log Cabin Dr Unit B3 Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	950	$749	$0.79	22d	1	1.27mi
1868 Sussex Dr Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	45d	1	1.30mi
1528 Wellworth Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1126	$1,000	$0.89	22d	1	1.32mi
4406 Chambers Rd Unit B-06 Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	925	$899	$0.97	45d	1	1.35mi
4406 Chambers Rd Apt E16 Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	925	$899	$0.97	22d	1	1.35mi
728 Key St Macon, GA	4.0	1.5	1210	$1,200	$0.99	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 113 DOM
18. 2026-02-06
    listed $125,000 Active 1088-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

    Charming Solid Brick Home Near Macon Mall & Atrium Health Amphitheater! Welcome home to this well-maintained solid brick beauty nestled in a quiet, established neighborhood just minutes from the Macon Mall, the exciting new Atrium Health Amphitheater, shopping, restaurants, and all major city amenities! This inviting home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, offering the perfect blend of comfort and functionality. Step inside to a large living room ideal for relaxing or entertaining, and enjoy the convenience of the kitchen layout with plenty of space for family meals and gatherings. The carpet needs to be replaced, and paint updated in the bedrooms. Sold as is. Outside, you'll love the covered carport and the expansive half-acre fenced lot, providing endless potential for outdoor living, pets, gardening, or future upgrades. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer looking for the perfect starter home or an investor seeking a great opportunity, this property is truly a dream come true. Schedule your private showing today—this one won't last long!

19. 2004-02-20
    soldstatus $76,000
20. 2003-06-06
    soldstatus $50,000
21. 1999-06-30
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $939 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,150 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$211/yr (+$18/mo · 22.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$939
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,134
• − Management: −$1,134
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$291
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$70
• After-tax cash flow: $1,842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 32,421
• Household income: $38,784
• Rent vs Own: 57.5% rent · 42.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2674.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 28% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.44%
• Current HPI: 194.5459
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.61%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+135.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $125,000 MGMLS
• 2004-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $939 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.