954 Cochise Trl SE · Conyers, GA 30094

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,682 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1975 0.38 ac lot $113/sqft · 27% below area Est $258k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 954 Cochise Trail SE in Conyers, GA! This 4-bedroom, 2 full baths home offers comfortable living with plenty of space for family and guests. The functional layout provides a bright living area, a spacious kitchen with ample cabinet storage, and generously sized bedrooms. Enjoy a large yard perfect for outdoor gatherings, gardening, or relaxing evenings at home. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major roadways, this property offers both comfort and accessibility. A great opportunity to make this home your own - schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Bright living area
• Spacious kitchen
• Large yard

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BRIGHT LIVING AREA
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.4% in Conyers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#167 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities D.
• Rockdale County (suburban): math 14% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #136 of 174 in GA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Rockdale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockdale County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $190k implies a 155% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.52%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,439
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -26.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
835 Cochise Trl	0.28mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,680 (-0%)	2mo	$277,000	$165	76
4753 Bell Cir	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-9%)	3mo	$200,000	$130	69
730 Bell Rd SE	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+4%)	3mo	$270,000	$154	68
4733 Bell Cir SE	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,811 (+8%)	4mo	$234,900	$130	68
14908 Brown Bridge Rd	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,696 (+1%)	2mo	$160,000	$94	62
930 Thornwood Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+10%)	8mo	$220,000	$119	61
4620 Cedar Brook Dr SE	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	8mo	$243,000	$167	54
803 Cedar Lake Dr SE	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-12%)	9mo	$246,000	$166	52
800 Greenwood Trl SE	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,438 (-14%)	11mo	$249,000	$173	46
4616 Hamlet Walk SE	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,484 (-12%)	6mo	$240,000	$162	40
20 Gibson Way	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,850 (+10%)	11mo	$309,000	$167	37
614 Windsor Dr SE	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,432 (-15%)	8mo	$218,900	$153	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,728
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $12,306
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30094

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 386
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,907 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,772/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $308	-5% $254	+0% $200	+5% $147	+10% $93
Rent	-10% $50	-5% $125	+0% $200	+5% $276	+10% $351
Rate	-1.0pp $296	-0.5pp $249	base $200	+0.5pp $151	+1.0pp $101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
75 Barber Rd Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,600	$1.42	5d	1	0.20mi
4830 Thornwood Dr Covington, GA	4.0	2.0	2158	$2,210	$1.02	5d	1	0.46mi
4737 Cedar Lake Dr SE Conyers, GA	3.0	3.0	1754	$1,799	$1.03	24d	1	0.60mi
50 Stone Creek Dr Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,795	$1.30	44d	1	0.67mi
4656 Bristol Dr SE Conyers, GA	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	44d	1	0.77mi
4790 Northbrook Ct Conyers, GA	3.0	2.0	2039	$1,550	$0.76	13d	1	0.77mi
340 Christian Woods Dr Conyers, GA	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,900	$1.34	2d	1	0.84mi
427 Birch Ln SE Conyers, GA	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,499	$1.02	2d	1	1.02mi
201 Oglesby Bridge Rd SE Conyers, GA	4.0	2.0	1922	$1,700	$0.88	44d	1	1.37mi
1062 Plantation Blvd SE Conyers, GA	3.0	3.0	1219	$1,810	$1.48	21d	1	1.45mi
20 Tara Way Covington, GA	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,150	$1.30	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $189,900 Under Contract 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,900 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,900 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,900 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $189,900 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,900 Price Change 94 DOM
10. 2026-05-14
    price $199,900 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    Welcome to 954 Cochise Trail SE in Conyers, GA! This 4-bedroom, 2 full baths home offers comfortable living with plenty of space for family and guests. The functional layout provides a bright living area, a spacious kitchen with ample cabinet storage, and generously sized bedrooms. Enjoy a large yard perfect for outdoor gatherings, gardening, or relaxing evenings at home. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major roadways, this property offers both comfort and accessibility. A great opportunity to make this home your own - schedule your showing today!

11. 2026-02-26
    listed $214,900 New 579-char remark

    Show marketing remark (579 chars)

    Welcome to 954 Cochise Trail SE in Conyers, GA! This 4-bedroom, 2 full baths home offers comfortable living with plenty of space for family and guests. The functional layout provides a bright living area, a spacious kitchen with ample cabinet storage, and generously sized bedrooms. Enjoy a large yard perfect for outdoor gatherings, gardening, or relaxing evenings at home. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major roadways, this property offers both comfort and accessibility. A great opportunity to make this home your own - schedule your showing today!

12. 1995-06-23
    soldstatus $74,376
13. 1990-06-19
    soldstatus $73,300
14. 1986-05-20
    soldstatus $55,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,772 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,772 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,772
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,831
• − Management: −$1,831
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$662
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$159
• After-tax cash flow: $2,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockdale County
• NCES district ID: 1304410
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $53,325
• Composite: 19.42/100
• National rank: #8776
• State rank: #136 of 174 in GA

Livability — Conyers

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #10533

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rockdale County · 96,534 people
• City population: 96,534
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 33,731
• Household income: $88,530
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Rockdale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,145 people
• By 2030: 104,558 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 116,100 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 127,827 · +28.9%
• By 2075: 159,113 · +60.5%
• By 2100: 181,178 · +82.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 29% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockdale

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+47.5) · D 73.4% · R 25.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 47.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+47.5 2020: D+40.8 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -168.06%
• Current HPI: 205.627
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+258.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $199,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $214,900 GAMLS
• 1995-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $74,376 Public Records
• 1990-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $73,300 Public Records
• 1986-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $55,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,772 · +15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.