11420 Criterion Ave · Spanish Lake, MO 63138

$124,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1962 8,102 sqft lot $114/sqft · 9% above area Est $115k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully renovated home in quite neighborhood. The home features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Beautiful hardwood floors throughout. Finished basement with full bathroom. Large backyard that backs to trees. This home is move-in-ready. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Asphalt road access
• Public water
• 8,102 sq ft lot

Tags

• SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE
• TRADITIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• DEDICATED KITCHEN SPACE
• ASPHALT ROAD ACCESS
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• PUBLIC WATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,092 (public records)
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (other)
• Home design: Single‑family residence; One story; House structure
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Level lot; No patio or porch listed; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher, Microwave, Free‑Standing Electric Range, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate and wood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom (all on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Other heating type
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Microwave, Free‑Standing Electric Range, Refrigerator; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $247 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Grannemann Elem. (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,072 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 411 students, 98% FRL); Hazelwood East High (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #495 of 521 statewide, top 95%, 1,264 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 53% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.47%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $114,643
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: 8.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1328 Coppergate Ln	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,061 (-3%)	0mo	$104,900	$99	85
1316 Bayonne Dr	0.10mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,015 (-7%)	2mo	$105,000	$103	73
1141 June Ave	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,142 (+5%)	4mo	$149,900	$131	63
1202 Laredo Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+6%)	2mo	$99,500	$86	56
1459 Redman Blvd	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,150 (+5%)	2mo	$115,000	$100	55
1072 Prigge Rd	0.44mi	3/1.5	960 (-12%)	1mo	$99,900	$104	55
931 Prigge Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,160 (+6%)	2mo	$175,000	$151	51
1459 Cove Ln	0.60mi	3/1.5	988 (-10%)	3mo	$79,900	$81	50
1516 Farmview Ave	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,156 (+6%)	4mo	$130,000	$112	50
1219 Walker Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0	936 (-14%)	6mo	$119,900	$128	46
1131 Maple Ave Unit A	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-8%)	4mo	$109,900	$110	45
1135 Cove Ln	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-14%)	2mo	$85,000	$91	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-8,652
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,251
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63138

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,419 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,006/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,107

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $317	-5% $282	+0% $247	+5% $211	+10% $176
Rent	-10% $135	-5% $191	+0% $247	+5% $303	+10% $359
Rate	-1.0pp $310	-0.5pp $279	base $247	+0.5pp $214	+1.0pp $181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1310 Petite Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1407	$1,495	$1.06	24d	1	0.05mi
1141 Scott Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	23d	1	0.34mi
1172 June Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1142	$1,400	$1.23	45d	1	0.39mi
11726 Criterion Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,420	$1.18	24d	1	0.39mi
1218 Walker Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,275	$1.36	24d	1	0.41mi
1223 Walker Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	936	$1,800	$1.92	45d	1	0.43mi
1376 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,365	$1.48	24d	1	0.49mi
1359 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,427	$1.54	3d	1	0.51mi
11185 Oak Parkway Ln St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1412	$1,075	$0.76	3d	1	0.55mi
11891 Bridgevale Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	24d	1	0.59mi
1132 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1080	$1,195	$1.11	45d	1	0.61mi
1504 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1014	$1,299	$1.28	5d	1	0.65mi
1459 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1150	$1,550	$1.35	21d	1	0.65mi
1202 Laredo Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,450	$1.26	17d	1	0.68mi
1516 Farmview Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1156	$1,295	$1.12	45d	1	0.72mi
11930 Criterion Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,350	$1.65	45d	1	0.75mi
941 Pike Ct St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1431	$1,255	$0.88	5d	1	0.78mi
941 Pike Ct St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1431	$1,255	$0.88	24d	1	0.78mi
1455 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	13d	1	0.82mi
1473 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	45d	1	0.84mi
11921 Larimore Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	45d	1	0.85mi
12035 Krenning Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,125	$0.96	24d	1	1.01mi
1708 San Remo Ct St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1053	$1,300	$1.23	3d	9	1.08mi
1321 Dominica Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,400	$1.38	45d	1	1.24mi
10527 Prestwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	854	$1,395	$1.63	8d	1	1.29mi
10421 Gardo Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	15d	1	1.30mi
10518 Gretna Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1082	$1,450	$1.34	24d	1	1.32mi
257 Glen Garry Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,025	$1.17	15d	1	1.33mi
1205 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	901	$1,325	$1.47	24d	1	1.34mi
1205 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	901	$1,350	$1.50	45d	1	1.34mi
10524 Durness Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	45d	1	1.35mi
10650 Dunkeld Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,250	$1.46	8d	1	1.36mi
10519 Renfrew Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	982	$1,399	$1.42	45d	1	1.38mi
10617 Dunkeld Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,299	$1.49	45d	1	1.39mi
10617 Dunkeld Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	873	$1,299	$1.49	8d	1	1.39mi
1911 Redman Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,495	$1.03	3d	1	1.39mi
10508 Druid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,475	$1.31	17d	1	1.39mi
409 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,095	$1.28	5d	1	1.40mi
743 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	932	$1,025	$1.10	8d	1	1.40mi
457 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,350	$1.58	24d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $124,900 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $124,900 Active 1100-char remark
17. 2021-05-24
    soldstatus $3,331,646
18. 2015-07-30
    soldstatus $62,500
19. 2015-07-10
    soldstatus Closed 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Beautifully renovated home in quite neighborhood. The home features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Beautiful hardwood floors throughout. Finished basement with full bathroom. Large backyard that backs to trees. This home is move-in-ready. Schedule your showing today!

20. 2015-06-23
    listed $69,900 Active 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    Beautifully renovated home in quite neighborhood. The home features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Beautiful hardwood floors throughout. Finished basement with full bathroom. Large backyard that backs to trees. This home is move-in-ready. Schedule your showing today!

21. 2015-05-22
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    NORTH COUNTY IS CALLING WITH THIS ATTRACTIVE RANCH*ATTACHED GARAGE*NEWER WINDOWS*FINISH TO THE LOWER LEVEL INCLUDES A FULL BATH*MASTER BEDROOM HAS A CONVENIENT HALF BATH*UPDATES TO SYSTEMS*HURRY*NOT A GUT HERE*VALUE IS THERE*

22. 2015-05-12
    historical

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    NORTH COUNTY IS CALLING WITH THIS ATTRACTIVE RANCH*ATTACHED GARAGE*NEWER WINDOWS*FINISH TO THE LOWER LEVEL INCLUDES A FULL BATH*MASTER BEDROOM HAS A CONVENIENT HALF BATH*UPDATES TO SYSTEMS*HURRY*NOT A GUT HERE*VALUE IS THERE*

23. 2015-04-16
    listed $39,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    NORTH COUNTY IS CALLING WITH THIS ATTRACTIVE RANCH*ATTACHED GARAGE*NEWER WINDOWS*FINISH TO THE LOWER LEVEL INCLUDES A FULL BATH*MASTER BEDROOM HAS A CONVENIENT HALF BATH*UPDATES TO SYSTEMS*HURRY*NOT A GUT HERE*VALUE IS THERE*

24. 2000-07-27
    soldstatus $69,000
25. 1993-04-30
    soldstatus
26. 1989-05-01
    soldstatus $68,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,006 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,006 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$2,006
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,362
• − Management: −$1,362
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $1,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$250
• After-tax cash flow: $2,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Spanish Lake

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #25189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spanish Lake, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,233
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,233
• Household income: $56,096
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 925.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.09%
• Current HPI: 165.2146
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+81.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $124,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $3,331,646 Public Records
• 2015-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2015-07-10 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-23 Listed $69,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-22 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-05-12 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-16 Listed $39,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 1993-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $68,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,006 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.