68 Mar El Ct · Ellisville, MO 63011

$325,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,916 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1958 1.22 ac lot Est $345k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Some homes are waiting for the right person to come along and bring them forward — and 68 Mar-El Court is exactly that. Situated on a rare 1.22-acre lot in the heart of Ellisville, this solid 1958 brick story-and-a-half has been lovingly held by one family for decades, and now it's ready for a new caretaker with fresh eyes and a vision for what it can become. The bones here are genuinely impressive. Classic construction, a 1,916 sq ft floor plan with 2 bedrooms upstairs, an owner's en-suite on the main level and a flexible main-floor family room that easily functions as a 4th bedroom depending on how you live — this home adapts to your needs. The living room centers on a strikin

Key facts

• 1.22 acre lot
• Mature trees
• 1.22 acre lot

Tags

• 1.22 ACRE LOT
• BRIGHT ENCLOSED PORCH
• PRIVATE PEACEFUL SETTING
• MATURE TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence (attached property); One and one-half levels
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Rectangular lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; 2 bedrooms on the main level; 2 bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; All main-level bathrooms: 2 full, 0 half; Upper-level bathrooms: 0 full, 1 half
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Basement with block construction; Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Ellisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#48 in MO, #3,640 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rockwood R-VI (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #9 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Westridge Elem. (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 400 students, 20% FRL); Crestview Middle (math 57% / reading 70%, grade B+, #11 of 391 statewide, top 3%, 1,125 students, 12% FRL); Marquette Sr. High (math 53% / reading 79%, grade B, #17 of 521 statewide, top 3%, 2,155 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 145 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $264,746 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $344,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1157 Lariat Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,820 (-5%)	4mo	$410,000	$225	77
1040 Bridgeport Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,872 (-2%)	7mo	$279,900	$150	70
216 Hillsdale Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-1%)	4mo	$265,000	$139	68
120 Highview Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,765 (-8%)	2mo	$249,900	$142	67
222 Dale Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,791 (-6%)	2mo	$330,000	$184	67
1206 Fairview Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,085 (+9%)	1mo	$375,000	$180	57
1043 Carole Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,857 (-3%)	8mo	$305,000	$164	56
124 Vlasis Dr	0.71mi	3/3.0	1,950 (+2%)	9mo	$330,000	$169	55
1010 Pawtuckette Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,788 (-7%)	10mo	$268,900	$150	54
1025 Bridgeport Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,720 (-10%)	8mo	$369,900	$215	52
46 Klamberg Ln	0.52mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,790 (-7%)	9mo	$339,000	$189	50
502 Trevi Ln	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (-9%)	3mo	$499,000	$285	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-63,720
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-84,674
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63011

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,647 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,037/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,755

Max offer price $310,036

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $7	+0% $-85	+5% $-177	+10% $-269
Rent	-10% $-294	-5% $-189	+0% $-85	+5% $20	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $-2	base $-85	+0.5pp $-169	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15970 Manchester Rd Ellisville, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$3,185	$3.33	0d	102	0.88mi
612 Log Hill Ct Ballwin, MO	4.0	2.5	2148	$3,500	$1.63	0d	1	0.94mi
974 Claytonbrook Dr Unit 2D Ballwin, MO	3.0	2.0	1768	$2,125	$1.20	3d	1	1.03mi
170 Steamboat Ln Ballwin, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1177	$2,302	$1.95	0d	11	1.29mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 687-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   listed $325,000 Pending 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,037 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,037 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,037
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,542
• − Management: −$2,542
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$6,636
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,593
• After-tax cash flow: $576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockwood R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2926850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $98,721
• Composite: 53.61/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #9 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ellisville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #3640

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellisville, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 35,920
• Household income: $124,454
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 455.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 8% Asian 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -271.82%
• Current HPI: 234.1279
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-11 Listed $325,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $325,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $4,037 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.