516 County Road 4021 · Old River-Winfree, TX 77535

$139,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 50 Days on market

Built 1999 0.65 ac lot Est $180k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COUNTRY LIVING AT ITS VERY BEST! UNRESTRICTED well maintained property just outside the hustle and bustle of Houston. Fully fenced with two storage buildings, a gorgeous front porch, and some amazingly beautiful trees. New AC in 7/2020 - New roof in 2018 - New front porch in 1/2021 - New electric range in 11/2020 - New bathtub, toilet, and sink in spare bathroom - Refrigerator will stay. Large kitchen with island open to the family room, tons of cabinet space in the kitchen. RV awning will not stay. PRICED TO SELL QUICKLY - SCHEDULE YOUR SHOWING TODAY!

Key facts

• Spacious front porch
• Ample cabinet space
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• TWO WORKSHOPS WITH ELECTRICITY
• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH
• OPEN KITCHEN WITH AN ISLAND
• UPDATED SECONDARY BATHROOM
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport with 2 carport spaces; One-car garage
• Utilities: Septic system (septic tank and aerobic septic)
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1999
• Construction: Unknown construction materials
• Exterior features: Lot of about 0.65 acres; Lot described as 'Other'

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Three total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.8% in Old River-Winfree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kimmie M Brown El (math 26% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 845 students, 82% FRL); Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1209 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,799 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.46%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,968
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
544 County Road 4023	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	8mo	$179,900	$148	71
13106 Maplewood Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	4mo	$250,000	$206	63
975 County Road 404	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,216 (0%)	10mo	$150,000	$123	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,119
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $31,532
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1209
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,579 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $967/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,105

Max offer price $139,999

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,999 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,999 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,999 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,999 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,999 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,999 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,999 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,999 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,999 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,999 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,999 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    listed $139,999 Active
15. 2026-04-27
    historical
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $139,999 Active
17. 2021-05-24
    soldstatus
18. 2021-05-21
    soldstatus Sold 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING AT ITS VERY BEST! UNRESTRICTED well maintained property just outside the hustle and bustle of Houston. Fully fenced with two storage buildings, a gorgeous front porch, and some amazingly beautiful trees. New AC in 7/2020 - New roof in 2018 - New front porch in 1/2021 - New electric range in 11/2020 - New bathtub, toilet, and sink in spare bathroom - Refrigerator will stay. Large kitchen with island open to the family room, tons of cabinet space in the kitchen. RV awning will not stay. PRICED TO SELL QUICKLY - SCHEDULE YOUR SHOWING TODAY!

19. 2021-05-13
    status Pending 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING AT ITS VERY BEST! UNRESTRICTED well maintained property just outside the hustle and bustle of Houston. Fully fenced with two storage buildings, a gorgeous front porch, and some amazingly beautiful trees. New AC in 7/2020 - New roof in 2018 - New front porch in 1/2021 - New electric range in 11/2020 - New bathtub, toilet, and sink in spare bathroom - Refrigerator will stay. Large kitchen with island open to the family room, tons of cabinet space in the kitchen. RV awning will not stay. PRICED TO SELL QUICKLY - SCHEDULE YOUR SHOWING TODAY!

20. 2021-05-04
    status Option Pending 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING AT ITS VERY BEST! UNRESTRICTED well maintained property just outside the hustle and bustle of Houston. Fully fenced with two storage buildings, a gorgeous front porch, and some amazingly beautiful trees. New AC in 7/2020 - New roof in 2018 - New front porch in 1/2021 - New electric range in 11/2020 - New bathtub, toilet, and sink in spare bathroom - Refrigerator will stay. Large kitchen with island open to the family room, tons of cabinet space in the kitchen. RV awning will not stay. PRICED TO SELL QUICKLY - SCHEDULE YOUR SHOWING TODAY!

21. 2021-05-02
    listed $135,000 Active 558-char remark

    Show marketing remark (558 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING AT ITS VERY BEST! UNRESTRICTED well maintained property just outside the hustle and bustle of Houston. Fully fenced with two storage buildings, a gorgeous front porch, and some amazingly beautiful trees. New AC in 7/2020 - New roof in 2018 - New front porch in 1/2021 - New electric range in 11/2020 - New bathtub, toilet, and sink in spare bathroom - Refrigerator will stay. Large kitchen with island open to the family room, tons of cabinet space in the kitchen. RV awning will not stay. PRICED TO SELL QUICKLY - SCHEDULE YOUR SHOWING TODAY!

22. 2003-06-04
    soldstatus
23. 2002-12-10
    historical
24. 2002-07-02
    listed $66,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $967 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,595/yr (+$133/mo · 165.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$967
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,516
• − Management: −$1,516
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $2,334
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$560
• After-tax cash flow: $3,931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

Livability — Old River-Winfree

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+112.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $139,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $139,999 HARMLS
• 2021-05-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-02 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2003-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-07-02 Listed $66,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $967 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.