2505 Campbell St · Commerce, TX 75428

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1940 6,708 sqft lot Est $139k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to make this home your own! Original hardwood floors! 3 bedrooms, one full bath. Large, fenced backyard.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Vinyl plank flooring
• 6,708 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• LARGE COVERED BACK PATIO
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADS
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN COMMERCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Affordable housing; agent related to owner; Subdivision: College Heights Add
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Covered carport (1 space); Garage faces front
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Cable available; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Entry on one level
• Construction: Built in 1940 (preowned); Siding construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Covered patio/porch; Large backyard with grass; Subdivision setting; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dual sinks
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Level 1) — 14 x 12; Bedroom (Level 1) — 12 x 10; Bedroom (Level 1) — 11 x 10
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Natural Gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Cable TV available; 6 total rooms; One-level layout; 1 living area; 1 dining area
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($997/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (5.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.1% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#737 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Commerce ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #687 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Commerce El (400 students, 78% FRL); Commerce Middle (math 21% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 331 students, 78% FRL); Commerce H S (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 465 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,902 (5.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.64%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,320
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1810 Live Oak St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,092 (+1%)	1mo	$100,000	$92	64
2708 Monroe St	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,135 (+5%)	24mo	$205,000	$181	58
2009 Pecan St	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,014 (-6%)	22mo	$95,000	$94	46
1410 Bois D Arc St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,236 (+14%)	7mo	$159,900	$129	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-16,569
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,550
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75428

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,279 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,958/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,174

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $121	+0% $83	+5% $45	+10% $7
Rent	-10% $-18	-5% $33	+0% $83	+5% $134	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $151	-0.5pp $117	base $83	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2004 Pecan St Commerce, TX	2.0	3.0	1014	$1,200	$1.18	45d	1	0.49mi
1313 Hunt St Commerce, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	45d	1	0.55mi
1618 Bois D'Arc St Unit 102 Commerce, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$895	$0.90	24d	1	0.56mi
1814 Hunt St Unit 1809 Commerce, TX	2.0	1.5	872	$995	$1.14	45d	1	0.59mi
1814 Hunt St Unit 1805 6 Commerce, TX	2.0	1.5	872	$995	$1.14	26d	1	0.59mi
1814 Hunt St Unit 1303 Commerce, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$925	$1.32	45d	1	0.59mi
801 Culver St Unit A05 Commerce, TX	2.0	1.5	870	$1,025	$1.18	0d	1	0.67mi
801 Culver St Unit C209 Commerce, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,175	$1.12	21d	1	0.67mi
801 Culver St Unit D209 Commerce, TX	2.0	2.0	770	$1,250	$1.62	3d	1	0.68mi
600 Maple St Commerce, TX	4.0	4.0	1400	$800	$0.57	26d	1	0.74mi
409 Maple St Unit 409A Commerce, TX	3.0	2.0	1098	$625	$0.57	1d	1	0.84mi
800 Sycamore St Commerce, TX	2.0	2.0	1045	$1,200	$1.15	45d	1	0.96mi
1315 Oneal St Unit B Commerce, TX	3.0	2.0	1007	$1,275	$1.27	3d	1	1.03mi
1315 Oneal St Commerce, TX	3.0	2.0	1007	$1,600	$1.59	0d	1	1.03mi
1004 Park St Commerce, TX	3.0	1.0	1082	$925	$0.85	18d	1	1.06mi
904 N Neal St Commerce, TX	2.0	1.0	1033	$1,250	$1.21	14d	1	1.32mi
904 N Neal St Commerce, TX	2.0	1.0	1033	$1,250	$1.21	17d	1	1.32mi
811 Bishop St Commerce, TX	2.0	1.0	810	$850	$1.05	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $155,000 Active
17. 2025-11-17
    soldstatus
18. 2025-11-13
    soldstatus Closed 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Great opportunity to make this home your own! Original hardwood floors! 3 bedrooms, one full bath. Large, fenced backyard.

19. 2025-11-04
    status Pending 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Great opportunity to make this home your own! Original hardwood floors! 3 bedrooms, one full bath. Large, fenced backyard.

20. 2025-10-25
    historical Active Option Contract 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Great opportunity to make this home your own! Original hardwood floors! 3 bedrooms, one full bath. Large, fenced backyard.

21. 2025-10-17
    listed $69,900 Active 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    Great opportunity to make this home your own! Original hardwood floors! 3 bedrooms, one full bath. Large, fenced backyard.

22. 2014-09-26
    soldstatus
23. 2010-09-03
    soldstatus
24. 1989-08-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,958 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$513/yr (+$43/mo · 26.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,958
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,228
• − Management: −$1,228
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,230
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$295
• After-tax cash flow: $1,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commerce ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,295
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7977
• State rank: #687 of 826 in TX

Livability — Commerce

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #737
• US rank: #13696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Commerce, TX
• County: Hunt County · 71,969 people
• City population: 11,531
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,531
• Household income: $51,424
• Rent vs Own: 48.1% rent · 51.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 546.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 14% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.08%
• Current HPI: 289.0436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+121.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-11-13 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2025-11-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-10-25 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $69,900 NTREIS
• 2014-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,958 · -10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.