416 Live Oak Loop · Whitney, TX 76692

$129,799

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 297 Days on market

Built 1950 0.71 ac lot $85/sqft · 29% below area Est $182k · 29% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOOK INVESTORS! We just listed this great investment home available near the Dallas/Fort Worth area. This property sits on a LARGE LOT that is approximately 30,753 Sq. Ft. lot of land and is ready for you to use however you wish. The home itself has a lot to offer and is ready for the right owner to come along and restore it in order to show its full potential. This property is located near Cedar Creek Park, the Brazos River, and Lake Whitney. Swing by this area and enjoy all the fun outdoor activities that are available. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Cedar creek park
• Lake whitney

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• CEDAR CREEK PARK
• BRAZOS RIVER
• LAKE WHITNEY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.0% in Whitney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#282 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Whitney ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #378 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 638 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $897 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,223 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.62%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,455
• List price: $129,799
• Delta: -28.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Cedar Shadow Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-5%)	10mo	$285,000	$196	72
108 Private Road 127	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+14%)	1mo	$112,200	$64	53
122 5th St	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,721 (+12%)	16mo	$279,000	$162	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-567
• Equity at exit: $19,353

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $25,809
• Equity at exit: $11,223

Cash invested: $36,344 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76692

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,460 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,165/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,053

Max offer price $129,799

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,450
• Closing costs: $3,894
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,799 Active 297 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,799 Active 296 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,799 Active 295 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,799 Active 294 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,799 Active 293 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,799 Active 292 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,799 Active 291 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,799 Active 288 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,799 Active 287 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,799 Active 286 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,799 Active 285 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,799 Active 282 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,799 Active 281 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,799 Active 280 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,799 Active 279 DOM
16. 2026-02-23
    price $129,799 756-char remark

    Show marketing remark (756 chars)

    LOOK INVESTORS! We just listed this great investment home available near the Dallas/Fort Worth area. This property sits on a LARGE LOT that is approximately 30,753 Sq. Ft. lot of land and is ready for you to use however you wish. The home itself has a lot to offer and is ready for the right owner to come along and restore it in order to show its full potential. This property is located near Cedar Creek Park, the Brazos River, and Lake Whitney. Swing by this area and enjoy all the fun outdoor activities that are available. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

17. 2025-08-25
    listed $135,799 Active 756-char remark

    Show marketing remark (756 chars)

    LOOK INVESTORS! We just listed this great investment home available near the Dallas/Fort Worth area. This property sits on a LARGE LOT that is approximately 30,753 Sq. Ft. lot of land and is ready for you to use however you wish. The home itself has a lot to offer and is ready for the right owner to come along and restore it in order to show its full potential. This property is located near Cedar Creek Park, the Brazos River, and Lake Whitney. Swing by this area and enjoy all the fun outdoor activities that are available. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property.

18. 2012-03-07
    soldstatus
19. 2009-09-23
    soldstatus
20. 2007-09-29
    soldstatus
21. 2000-01-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,165 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,375 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,210/yr (+$101/mo · 103.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,521
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,271
• − Property taxes: −$1,165
• − Insurance: −$649
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,402
• − Management: −$1,402
• − Depreciation: −$3,776
• Taxable income: $1,857
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$446
• After-tax cash flow: $3,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845720
• Math proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,861
• Composite: 34.97/100
• National rank: #5060
• State rank: #378 of 826 in TX

Livability — Whitney

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #6568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,662

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.72%
• Current HPI: 252.9827
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $129,799 HARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Listed $135,799 HARMLS
• 2012-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,165 · -18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.