2011 Cornell Rd · Middleburg, FL 32068

$5,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,688 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1977 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this rare opportunity! It doesn't get any better than having your boat ready for its next voyage just steps away in the boathouse which features a power lift of up to 7500 lbs., fresh water & electricity. This deep waterfront home has been beautifully updated & is turn key ready! Prepare to be impressed upon entering the open concept floor plan with water views from nearly every room! The kitchen has a large island highlighted with modern cabinetry, SS appliances & gorgeous granite counters! Custom light fixtures can be found throughout! The primary suite incudes his & her infinity mirrored dual vanities & a custom tiled tub/shower combo. The lower level offers 2 bedrooms separated by a Jack & Jill bath. Additional flex space could easily convert to a 5th bedroom. There is ample space to entertain outside with a large deck & covered porch on the lower level. Imagine sitting on the upper deck relaxing with a cold beverage as you enjoy the view of Black Creek!

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Built 1977
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: AR-2; Lot frontage approximately 68 feet; Lot size approximately 0.22 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; On-street parking
• Utilities: Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Construction details: see remarks; Other roof
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 1 room
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Other flooring

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $5,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$521,472) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $5k).
• Cap rate 481.2% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 50.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 481.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 1696.24%
• DSCR: 76.47
• GRM: 0.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $521,472
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2277 Brannings Sawmill Ct	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,754 (+2%)	3mo	$529,990	$192	70
2454 Jennings Farm Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,754 (+2%)	3mo	$550,990	$200	68
2087 Harvard St	0.36mi	4/2.0	2,448 (-9%)	2mo	$370,000	$151	62
2436 Jennings Farm Dr	0.57mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,681 (-0%)	5mo	$519,990	$194	60
2412 Jennings Farm Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,493 (-7%)	2mo	$499,990	$201	58
2260 Brannings Sawmill Ct	0.48mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,881 (+7%)	1mo	$544,000	$189	56
128 S Lee Dr S	0.21mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,285 (-15%)	4mo	$765,000	$335	55
3911 Gareys Ferry Way	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,493 (-7%)	1mo	$624,471	$250	53
3961 Gareys Ferry Way	0.61mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,446 (-9%)	1mo	$475,000	$194	49
3967 Gareys Ferry Way	0.60mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,937 (+9%)	2mo	$459,900	$157	48
2487 Jennings Farm Dr	0.49mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,289 (-15%)	1mo	$415,000	$181	47
3793 Forest Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,284 (-15%)	3mo	$679,800	$298	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 71.90×
• Total profit: $99,264
• Equity at exit: $746

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 157.21×
• Total profit: $218,696
• Equity at exit: $432

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,549 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $1,552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $584

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2234 Windward Cay Ln Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,730	$0.97	23d	1	0.72mi
2790 Ravines Rd Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	2647	$2,576	$0.97	7d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $5,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 298-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $5,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$5,144
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,447
• − Management: −$2,447
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $20,047
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,811
• After-tax cash flow: $13,817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middleburg, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-95.7% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $5,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-09-04 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $475,000 realMLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $508,000 realMLS
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $509,000 realMLS
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $510,000 realMLS
• 2025-02-28 Price Changed $525,000 realMLS
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $530,000 realMLS
• 2025-01-09 Listed $550,000 realMLS
• 2023-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $493,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-20 Sold (MLS) $493,000 realMLS
• 2023-09-30 Pending — realMLS
• 2023-09-21 Contingent — realMLS
• 2023-09-01 Price Changed $499,000 realMLS
• 2023-08-01 Relisted — realMLS
• 2023-07-29 Contingent — realMLS
• 2023-07-14 Price Changed $537,000 realMLS
• 2023-06-24 Price Changed $567,500 realMLS
• 2023-06-03 Listed $584,900 realMLS
• 2021-01-14 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2020-10-24 Listed $290,000 realMLS
• 2020-01-01 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2019-10-06 Price Changed $159,900 realMLS
• 2019-08-11 Price Changed $175,000 realMLS
• 2019-07-24 Listed $185,000 realMLS
• 2018-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-27 Sold (MLS) $100,000 realMLS
• 2018-03-23 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-03-15 Relisted — realMLS
• 2018-03-14 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-03-12 Listed $116,500 realMLS

Property tax history

+16.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,283 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.