1302 Green Ave · Bay City, MI 48708

$119,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1960 5,662 sqft lot $121/sqft · 16% below area Est $142k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-bedroom ranch in Bay City. This well-built home features a nice-sized living room with a cozy fireplace. Enjoy the ease of main floor laundry and a spacious 2-car garage with plenty of room for storage or hobbies. Major updates provide peace of mind, including a newer furnace, central air, and hot water heater. The home also boasts a new sewer line with heat tape plumbing—an added bonus for reliability during colder months. A great opportunity for buyers looking for a move-in-ready home with key mechanical updates already completed!

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Garage parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas; Electric service available
• Home design: Residential single-story; Built in 1960; Below-grade finished area: none
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Crawl foundation; Built in 1960
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first floor, approx. 12 x 10, linoleum flooring
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (first floor): 12 x 12, carpet; Bedroom 2 (first floor): 11 x 12, carpet
• Flooring: Carpet in living areas and bedrooms; Linoleum in kitchen, bathroom, and laundry room
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (first floor), linoleum flooring, approx. 7 x 7
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central A/C; Natural gas heating fuel; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Gas fireplace; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on first floor, approx. 8 x 13, linoleum flooring; Basement: block foundation (crawl type)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($521/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $108,279 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.56%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,077
• List price: $119,500
• Delta: -15.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1302 Green Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	988 (0%)	1mo	$145,000	$147	99
300 Thompson St	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,016 (+3%)	9mo	$112,000	$110	66
2702 N VanBuren St	0.42mi	2/1.0	948 (-4%)	10mo	$120,000	$127	66
3204 N Water St	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,046 (+6%)	3mo	$110,000	$105	64
1110 Chase St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,011 (+2%)	8mo	$115,500	$114	59
414 Cambridge St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,074 (+9%)	1mo	$165,500	$154	50
209 Campbell St	0.53mi	2/1.0	880 (-11%)	10mo	$92,500	$105	49
301 Mcewan St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-13%)	4mo	$116,500	$135	49
2110 4th St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (+12%)	9mo	$78,000	$71	48
1009 N Hampton St	0.70mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,081 (+9%)	0mo	$140,000	$130	44
513 W Ridge Rd	0.74mi	2/1.0	864 (-13%)	1mo	$70,000	$81	44
308 Borton Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+11%)	8mo	$144,900	$132	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-16,593
• Equity at exit: $17,818

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-10,860
• Equity at exit: $10,332

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,083 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,627/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,028

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 McKinley St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	796	$925	$1.16	43d	1	1.27mi
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 555-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $119,500 Active 555-char remark
3. 2004-06-08
   soldstatus $88,500
4. 2004-05-26
   listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,627 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,734 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$107/yr (+$9/mo · 6.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$1,627
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,039
• − Management: −$1,039
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable loss: −$1,480
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$355
• After-tax cash flow: $876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+61.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Sold (MLS) $145,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $119,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-06-08 Sold (MLS) $88,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-05-26 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,627 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.