311 Bluebell Ln · Rexburg, ID 83440

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Other · 228 Days on market

Built 1980 $512/mo HOA · 36% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the heart of the Mill Hollow community, this delightful single-wide trailer exudes warmth and coziness. With three bedrooms and two bathrooms, this updated home offers a comfortable and inviting atmosphere This remodeled gem has a fresh, modern feel throughout, and offers a light and airy atmosphere. This home is on a rented lot and owner/tenants will need to fill out an application for acceptance.

Key facts

• Built 1980
• Listed 227 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as manufactured without land; Subdivision: MILL HOLLOW-MAD
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $512 monthly fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Metal siding
• Exterior features: Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Laminate countertops; Crawl space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#25 in ID, #3,515 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, commute F, employment F.
• Madison District (town): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #50 of 92 in ID (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 384 active listings in the ZIP; 274 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.10%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-60
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $13,731
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83440

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 384
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,418 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $363/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$512
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,188

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $512 · $6,144/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $70,000 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 227 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 226 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 225 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 224 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 222 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 221 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 217 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 212 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 211 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 210 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 209 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 208 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $70,000
18. 2026-03-06
    price $75,000
19. 2025-11-04
    listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ID · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $363 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $483 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$120/yr (+$10/mo · 33.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥88°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$363
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,361
• − Management: −$1,361
• − HOA: −$6,144
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $1,474
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$354
• After-tax cash flow: $1,822/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison District
• NCES district ID: 1601920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,737
• Composite: 37.3/100
• National rank: #4447
• State rank: #50 of 92 in ID

Livability — Rexburg

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #3515

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment F Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rexburg, ID
• County: Madison County · 51,421 people
• City population: 51,421
• Metro: Rexburg, ID
• Population (ZIP): 51,421
• Household income: $58,159
• Rent vs Own: 61.5% rent · 38.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1480.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,126 people
• By 2030: 41,845 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 42,742 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 44,170 · +10.1%
• By 2075: 43,379 · +8.1%
• By 2100: 41,607 · +3.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 5% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.3) · D 15.9% · R 80.2% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.5pp toward D · 2008: -72.8pp · 2024: -64.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.3 2020: R+63.7 2016: R+49.3 2012: R+87.5 2008: R+72.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.02%
• Current HPI: 241.1775
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: Rexburg, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $70,000 SRMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $75,000 SRMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $80,000 SRMLS

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $363 · +25.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.