27 Bay Ave W · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$1,195,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,325 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2001 1.06 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set 150 feet off the road behind private gates, this beautifully renovated contemporary home sits on a secluded, tree-lined acre in the heart of Hampton Bays. The sun-filled first floor features an open layout anchored by a redesigned kitchen with new Whirlpool stainless steel appliances, including double ovens and an induction cooktop, resurfaced white cabinetry, granite countertops, and a large built-in pantry. The dining area, framed by French doors, opens to a spacious patio for seamless indoor-outdoor living. A private office with garden views and a fully renovated bath with walk-in shower complete the main level. The expansive Great Room offers vaulted ceilings and a wood-burning fire

Key facts

• Private office
• Fully renovated bath
• Expansive great room

Tags

• REDESIGNED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS PATIO
• PRIVATE OFFICE
• FULLY RENOVATED BATH
• EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Oversized parking; Private parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable connected; Natural gas available; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Advanced framing technique construction
• Exterior features: Private pool; Not waterfront; Advanced framing construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances; Kitchen island; Granite counters; Pantry; Eat-in/chef's kitchen with breakfast bar and open layout
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Central air; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: First-floor full bathroom; Beamed ceilings; Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Chef's kitchen; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; High ceilings; High-speed internet; Kitchen island; Open floor plan; Open kitchen; Pantry; Soaking tub; Storage; Walk-through kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.17M (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $954k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $954k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,543/mo this rent would consume 86% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $952k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $954,314 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.21%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,507,050
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 E Tiana Rd	0.35mi	4/4.5 (+1)	3,314 (-0%)	3mo	$2,500,000	$754	70
19 Grant Blvd	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,000 (-10%)	23mo	$1,821,000	$607	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-151,337
• Equity at exit: $178,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $86,679
• Equity at exit: $103,322

Cash invested: $334,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,543 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,267
• Tax from tax record: −$832 /mo · $9,986/yr
• Insurance: −$498
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,004
• Net cashflow: $-124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,700

Max offer price $1,173,069

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $552	-5% $214	+0% $-124	+5% $-462	+10% $-801
Rent	-10% $-878	-5% $-501	+0% $-124	+5% $253	+10% $630
Rate	-1.0pp $478	-0.5pp $180	base $-124	+0.5pp $-434	+1.0pp $-749

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $298,750
• Closing costs: $35,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2300	$8,000	$3.48	16d	1	0.41mi
5 Mill Race Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	3000	$15,000	$5.00	45d	1	0.49mi
23 E Point Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.5	2614	$69,000	$26.40	26d	1	0.99mi
8 Westerly Ct Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2300	$25,000	$10.87	26d	1	1.02mi
48 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	2400	$12,500	$5.21	20d	1	1.03mi
8 Hyler Dr Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2808	$18,000	$6.41	45d	1	1.06mi
55A Shinnecock Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2300	$57,500	$25.00	26d	1	1.08mi
6 White Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	4.5	2458	$20,000	$8.14	26d	1	1.19mi
10 Ginny Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2596	$30,000	$11.56	26d	1	1.20mi
6 Bay Dr Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	3032	$18,000	$5.94	12d	1	1.35mi
9 Carter Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	2820	$90,000	$31.91	26d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $1,195,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-05-18
   listed $1,195,000 Active
3. 2025-10-17
   historical
4. 2025-09-13
   price $1,425,000
5. 2025-09-02
   historical $30,000
6. 2025-08-02
   price $1,549,000
7. 2025-07-11
   price $30,000
8. 2025-07-05
   price $1,595,000
9. 2025-06-14
   listed $80,000
10. 2025-04-04
    price $1,649,000
11. 2024-12-31
    listed $1,695,000 Active
12. 2023-03-29
    soldstatus $952,500
13. 2014-01-21
    soldstatus $500,000
14. 2013-04-21
    historical
15. 2012-10-06
    listed $574,999
16. 1990-10-01
    soldstatus $201,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,986 · $832/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,091 · $1,258/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,105/yr (+$425/mo · 51.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $114,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$66,939
• − Property taxes: −$9,986
• − Insurance: −$6,772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,161
• − Management: −$9,161
• − Depreciation: −$34,764
• Taxable loss: −$22,266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,344
• After-tax cash flow: $3,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+493.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $1,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $1,425,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Rental Removed $30,000 ONEKEY
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $1,549,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $30,000 ONEKEY
• 2025-07-05 Price Changed $1,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-14 Listed for Rent $80,000 ONEKEY
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $1,649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-31 Listed $1,695,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $952,500 Public Records
• 2014-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records
• 2013-04-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-06 Listed $574,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1990-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $201,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $9,986 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.