4409 Club Cir · Indian Lake Estates, FL 33898

$89,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 231 Days on market

Built 1965 1,446 sqft lot $350/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 1-bedroom, 1-bath villa located in the desirable Lakeshore Club community, offering resort-style amenities and a relaxed Florida lifestyle. This well-maintained home features ceramic tile flooring throughout, beautiful wood cabinets, granite countertops, and new double-pane windows, fresh textured walls and paint, and a combination washer/dryer so you won't have to go to the community laundry mat. The sliding glass door opens to the back screened porch, perfect for enjoying the outdoors year-round. You’ll also love the private courtyard with a concrete patio and mature landscaping — an ideal spot for your morning coffee or evening glass of wine. The comm

Key facts

• Concrete patio
• Screened porch
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• SCREENED PORCH
• PRIVATE COURTYARD
• CONCRETE PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual HOA fees approximately $3,480
• HOA & community: HOA required; monthly fee $290 (includes cable TV, common area taxes, pool, grounds maintenance, management, sewer, trash, water); Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, sidewalks, community mailbox; golf carts allowed; buyer approval required; pets allowed (cats and dogs with limits)

Exterior

• Parking: Paved road access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential villa; One story; Southwest facing; Attached housing
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 648–668 sq ft
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Patio/porch; Sliding doors; Sidewalks; Shed(s); Mature landscaping; Lot is cleared, level, paved and in county

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with space heater; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan with living room/dining room combo; Solid surface and stone counters; Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments (blinds, double-pane windows)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Inside laundry with laundry closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($765/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $90k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-10,322
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-3,008
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,211 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $413/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,131

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $115	-5% $89	+0% $64	+5% $38	+10% $13
Rent	-10% $-32	-5% $16	+0% $64	+5% $112	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $109	-0.5pp $87	base $64	+0.5pp $40	+1.0pp $17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2709 Club Cir Lake Wales, FL	1.0	1.0	648	$950	$1.47	24d	1	0.38mi
1707 Club Cir Unit 1707 Lakeshore, FL	1.0	1.0	648	$1,075	$1.66	24d	1	0.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 231 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 230 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 229 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 228 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 223 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 217 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-02-10
    price $89,900
15. 2025-12-21
    price $94,000
16. 2025-10-30
    listed $96,000 Active
17. 2007-01-05
    soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $413 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$333/yr (+$28/mo · 80.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$413
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,163
• − Management: −$1,163
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable loss: −$502
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$120
• After-tax cash flow: $885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Indian Lake Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+95.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-21 Price Changed $94,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Listed $96,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $413 · +33.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.