2017 Acklen Run Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$3,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,114 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2020 5,218 sqft lot $128/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new home in the vibrant Sterling Lakes community, where comfort meets convenience! This delightful 3 bed, 2.5 bath home features a spacious living room with an inviting electric fireplace, complemented by an open floor plan that’s perfect for gatherings. The well-appointed kitchen includes an enormous island, stainless steel appliances, and large pantry, with your dining area just steps away. The expansive first floor primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, while the upstairs gameroom is perfect for entertainment and relaxation. Step outside to enjoy time on the covered patio, offering a peaceful space with no back neighbors for added privacy. Community amenities abound, including basketball, pickleball, and tennis courts, a clubhouse, fitness center, jogging paths, playground, pool, and splash pad. Zoned to excellent Alvin ISD schools, this home provides a wonderful lifestyle in a fantastic location. Don’t miss out on this exceptional rental opportunity!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Enormous island
• Large pantry

Tags

• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ENORMOUS ISLAND
• LARGE PANTRY
• FIRST FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• UPSTAIRS GAMEROOM

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $3,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$357,266) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $3k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $3k).
• Cap rate 740.1% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $21 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $90 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $840 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 83.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 740.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2620.71%
• DSCR: 117.61
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $357,266
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1523 Splashing Wave Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,031 (-4%)	0mo	$349,490	$172	64
1522 Shimmering Ocean Way	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,042 (-3%)	1mo	$331,000	$162	64
1507 Shimmering Ocean Way	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,042 (-3%)	1mo	$354,490	$174	61
1419 Splashing Wave Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,031 (-4%)	1mo	$319,990	$158	61
9715 Blue Sapphire Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,121 (+0%)	0mo	$272,500	$128	61
9111 Serene Haven Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,035 (-4%)	1mo	$319,490	$157	59
9114 Serene Hvn	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,042 (-3%)	1mo	$352,865	$173	59
9007 Serene Hvn	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,042 (-3%)	2mo	$356,865	$175	58
9019 Rose Water	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,042 (-3%)	2mo	$344,490	$169	56
9107 Serene Hvn	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,322 (+10%)	2mo	$355,865	$153	50
9822 Garnet Springs Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,879 (-11%)	1mo	$260,000	$138	44
9134 Sunset Marina Way	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,831 (-13%)	2mo	$311,990	$170	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 132.15×
• Total profit: $110,165
• Equity at exit: $447

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 265.61×
• Total profit: $222,274
• Equity at exit: $259

Cash invested: $840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4 /mo · $45/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$128
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $1,834

Break-even live

Break-even rent $188

Max offer price $3,000

Occupancy floor 22%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $750
• Closing costs: $90
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	21d	1	0.46mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,375	$1.52	43d	1	0.56mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	43d	1	0.60mi
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,425	$1.31	16d	1	0.73mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	12d	1	0.92mi
1014 Star Grass Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,375	$1.15	43d	1	0.98mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,700	$1.56	1d	6	1.05mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,469	$1.43	43d	7	1.05mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	43d	1	1.06mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1653	$2,306	$1.40	1d	21	1.12mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	43d	1	1.13mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	43d	1	1.31mi
8043 House Bank Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,550	$1.02	18d	1	1.31mi
8414 Aster Glen Way Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,650	$1.02	43d	1	1.42mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,275	$1.31	4d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $128 · $1,536/yr
• Likely covers: electricpoolgym

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 693-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $3,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$168
• − Property taxes: −$45
• − Insurance: −$15
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,410
• − Management: −$2,410
• − HOA: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$87
• Taxable income: $23,454
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,629
• After-tax cash flow: $16,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $3,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-11-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-10-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-10-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-09-19 Listed $322,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+50.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,838 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.