5290 County Road 3229 · Lone Oak, TX 75453

$150,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,716 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2001 1.01 ac lot $87/sqft · 43% above area Est $105k · 43% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sellers are motivated... Bring all offers. Great Property on over an acre of land. Property has a porch in the front and back. Features 2 living areas and 2 dining areas.

Key facts

• Porch in the front
• 2 dining areas
• 2 living areas

Tags

• OVER AN ACRE OF LAND
• PORCH IN THE FRONT
• PORCH IN THE BACK
• 2 LIVING AREAS
• 2 DINING AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.2% in Lone Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,438 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Lone Oak ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #310 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.56%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $104,995
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 42.86%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Wallace St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+2%)	1mo	$119,990	$69	65
709 Gladys St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,564 (-9%)	6mo	$90,000	$58	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $89,727
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.15×
• Total profit: $258,162
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75453

• Home prices YoY: 25.2%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,604 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,517/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,446

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-04-19
    listed $150,000 Active 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Sellers are motivated... Bring all offers. Great Property on over an acre of land. Property has a porch in the front and back. Features 2 living areas and 2 dining areas.

15. 2026-04-13
    historical $1,700
16. 2025-09-04
    listed $1,700
17. 2025-08-13
    historical $1,400
18. 2025-07-31
    listed $1,400
19. 2022-03-16
    price $1,300
20. 2022-01-12
    soldstatus
21. 2017-04-07
    historical
22. 2017-02-17
    listed $115,000 Active
23. 2016-11-29
    soldstatus
24. 2016-11-23
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2016-10-21
    status Pending
26. 2016-09-16
    listed $55,000 Active
27. 2014-10-24
    soldstatus
28. 2000-05-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,517 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,517 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,517
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,540
• − Management: −$1,540
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$868
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$208
• After-tax cash flow: $1,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lone Oak ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828020
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,628
• Composite: 36.72/100
• National rank: #4593
• State rank: #310 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lone Oak

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1438
• US rank: #24556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lone Oak, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,832

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 51.45%
• Current HPI: 255.6167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+172.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Rental Removed $1,700 RentEngineListings
• 2025-09-04 Listed for Rent $1,700 RentEngineListings
• 2025-08-13 Rental Removed $1,400 RentEngineListings
• 2025-07-31 Listed for Rent $1,400 RentEngineListings
• 2022-03-16 Price Changed $1,300 RENT.
• 2022-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-04-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-02-17 Listed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2016-11-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-11-23 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-10-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-09-16 Listed $55,000 NTREIS
• 2014-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-05-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+18.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,517 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.