2009 Lewis River Rd #1 · Woodland, WA 98674

$118,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 149 Days on market

Built 2026 2,624 sqft lot $129/sqft · 37% above area Est $85k · 40% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this brand new home place inside the 55+ community of North Fork MHP in the City limits of Woodland. This lot features a brand new 901 sq ft single wide with a carport and new shed. Close to Horse Shoe Lake, Right off the Lewis River, Easy access to I5, and Grocery Stores. Schedule a tour today! *New Shed will be painted the same color as the house in April*

Key facts

• Grocery stores
• Carport
• Easy access to i5

Tags

• NEW SHED
• CARPORT
• CLOSE TO HORSE SHOE LAKE
• EASY ACCESS TO I5
• GROCERY STORES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 2.7% in Woodland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#152 in WA, #3,252 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: schools D+, commute F.
• Woodland School District (town): math 48% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #94 of 291 in WA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $822 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $119k implies a 981% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,632 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.80%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,667
• List price: $118,900
• Delta: 40.43%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2009 Lewis River Rd #2	0.00mi	2/1.0	920 (-0%)	8mo	$90,000	$98	88
2009 Lewis River Rd #7	0.00mi	2/2.0	980 (+6%)	14mo	$24,500	$25	79
2009 Lewis River Rd #17	0.00mi	2/1.0	824 (-11%)	1mo	$57,000	$69	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-550
• Equity at exit: $17,728

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $24,430
• Equity at exit: $10,280

Cash invested: $33,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98674

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,784/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,580

Max offer price $118,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $371	-5% $330	+0% $289	+5% $248	+10% $207
Rent	-10% $136	-5% $212	+0% $289	+5% $366	+10% $443
Rate	-1.0pp $349	-0.5pp $320	base $289	+0.5pp $258	+1.0pp $227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,725
• Closing costs: $3,567
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2179 Dahlia St Woodland, WA	3.0	2.0	1096	$2,225	$2.03	20d	1	0.43mi
1451 N Goerig St Unit 1459-5 Woodland, WA	2.0	2.0	1048	$1,450	$1.38	3d	1	0.81mi
1451 N Goerig St Unit 1459-4 Woodland, WA	1.0	1.0	758	$1,275	$1.68	44d	1	0.81mi
1473 N Goerig St Woodland, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,520	$1.90	2d	4	0.84mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $118,900 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,900 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,900 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,900 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $118,900 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $118,900 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $122,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $122,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $122,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $122,000 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $122,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $122,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,000 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $122,000 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,000 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $122,000 Active 129 DOM
18. 2026-04-15
    price $122,000

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Take a look at this brand new home place inside the 55+ community of North Fork MHP in the City limits of Woodland. This lot features a brand new 901 sq ft single wide with a carport and new shed. Close to Horse Shoe Lake, Right off the Lewis River, Easy access to I5, and Grocery Stores. Schedule a tour today! *New Shed will be painted the same color as the house in April*

19. 2026-04-15
    price $122,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Take a look at this brand new home place inside the 55+ community of North Fork MHP in the City limits of Woodland. This lot features a brand new 901 sq ft single wide with a carport and new shed. Close to Horse Shoe Lake, Right off the Lewis River, Easy access to I5, and Grocery Stores. Schedule a tour today! *New Shed will be painted the same color as the house in April*

20. 2026-03-20
    price $125,900

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Take a look at this brand new home place inside the 55+ community of North Fork MHP in the City limits of Woodland. This lot features a brand new 901 sq ft single wide with a carport and new shed. Close to Horse Shoe Lake, Right off the Lewis River, Easy access to I5, and Grocery Stores. Schedule a tour today! *New Shed will be painted the same color as the house in April*

21. 2026-03-20
    price $125,900 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Take a look at this brand new home place inside the 55+ community of North Fork MHP in the City limits of Woodland. This lot features a brand new 901 sq ft single wide with a carport and new shed. Close to Horse Shoe Lake, Right off the Lewis River, Easy access to I5, and Grocery Stores. Schedule a tour today! *New Shed will be painted the same color as the house in April*

22. 2026-02-18
    price $135,000

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Take a look at this brand new home place inside the 55+ community of North Fork MHP in the City limits of Woodland. This lot features a brand new 901 sq ft single wide with a carport and new shed. Close to Horse Shoe Lake, Right off the Lewis River, Easy access to I5, and Grocery Stores. Schedule a tour today! *New Shed will be painted the same color as the house in April*

23. 2026-02-18
    price $135,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Take a look at this brand new home place inside the 55+ community of North Fork MHP in the City limits of Woodland. This lot features a brand new 901 sq ft single wide with a carport and new shed. Close to Horse Shoe Lake, Right off the Lewis River, Easy access to I5, and Grocery Stores. Schedule a tour today! *New Shed will be painted the same color as the house in April*

24. 2026-01-21
    listed $145,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Take a look at this brand new home place inside the 55+ community of North Fork MHP in the City limits of Woodland. This lot features a brand new 901 sq ft single wide with a carport and new shed. Close to Horse Shoe Lake, Right off the Lewis River, Easy access to I5, and Grocery Stores. Schedule a tour today! *New Shed will be painted the same color as the house in April*

25. 2026-01-21
    listed $145,000 Active 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Take a look at this brand new home place inside the 55+ community of North Fork MHP in the City limits of Woodland. This lot features a brand new 901 sq ft single wide with a carport and new shed. Close to Horse Shoe Lake, Right off the Lewis River, Easy access to I5, and Grocery Stores. Schedule a tour today! *New Shed will be painted the same color as the house in April*

26. 2000-11-17
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,660
• − Property taxes: −$1,784
• − Insurance: −$5,713
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − Depreciation: −$3,459
• Taxable income: $2,002
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$481
• After-tax cash flow: $2,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodland School District
• NCES district ID: 5310050
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,973
• Composite: 49.77/100
• National rank: #4219
• State rank: #94 of 291 in WA

Livability — Woodland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #152
• US rank: #3252

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime B- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodland, WA
• County: Clark County · 513,189 people
• City population: 17,525
• Metro: Longview, WA
• Population (ZIP): 17,525
• Household income: $94,245
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Cowlitz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,780 people
• By 2030: 103,980 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 100,769 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 96,685 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 86,454 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 74,052 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cowlitz

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.68%
• Current HPI: 333.4106
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Longview, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+1009.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $122,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $122,000 RMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $125,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $125,900 RMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $135,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $135,000 RMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $145,000 RMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $145,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-11.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $11 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.