Oakridge Plan · New Caney, TX 77357

$203,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,311 sqft · SingleFamily · 145 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $203,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $236,647.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $204k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in New Caney — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $179,511 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,647
• List price: $203,990
• Delta: -14.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16214 Bergara Bend Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,311 (0%)	0mo	$162,991	$124	85
16249 Bergara Bend Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	0mo	$208,990	$144	81
16246 Bergara Bend Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,311 (0%)	2mo	$231,990	$177	76
16238 Bergara Bend Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	1mo	$210,990	$145	67
16253 Bergara Bend Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+11%)	1mo	$202,990	$139	66
21540 Rustic Elm Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,444 (+10%)	1mo	$199,000	$138	64
16218 Bergara Bend Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+8%)	3mo	$235,990	$167	59
14317 Moonflower Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,415 (+8%)	1mo	$249,990	$177	58
16226 Bergara Bend Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+8%)	2mo	$243,990	$172	58
14282 Moonflower Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,415 (+8%)	2mo	$239,990	$170	54
16229 Bergara Bend Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	2mo	$235,990	$163	54
14278 Moonflower Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+14%)	0mo	$263,590	$177	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-52,041
• Equity at exit: $35,285

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-76,330
• Equity at exit: $20,461

Cash invested: $66,261 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 69 active · 29 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.8 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $224,990 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1238
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,241
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$296 /mo · $3,550/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,070

Max offer price $217,262

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $30	-5% $-52	+0% $-134	+5% $-216	+10% $-298
Rent	-10% $-284	-5% $-209	+0% $-134	+5% $-59	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $-15	-0.5pp $-74	base $-134	+0.5pp $-195	+1.0pp $-258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,162
• Closing costs: $7,099
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	73d	1	0.49mi
15171 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,650	$1.07	15d	1	0.72mi
14255 Timber Fields Way Splendora, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,622	$0.90	0d	59	0.97mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $203,990 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $203,990 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   price $203,990 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $202,990 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $202,990 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $202,990 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $201,990 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $201,990 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $201,990 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $201,990 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $201,990 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $201,990 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $201,990 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $201,990 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $201,990 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $200,990 Active 126 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $200,990 Active 124 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $200,990 Active 123 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $200,990 Active 122 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $200,990 Active 121 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $225,990 Active 120 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $225,990 Active 119 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $225,990 Active 118 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $225,990 Active 117 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $225,990 Active 116 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $225,990 Active 115 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $225,990 Active 113 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $225,990 Active 112 DOM
29. 2026-07-06
    days on market $225,990 Active 111 DOM
30. 2026-07-05
    days on market $225,990 Active 110 DOM
31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $225,990 Active 109 DOM
32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $225,990 Active 108 DOM
33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $225,990 Active 107 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $225,990 Active 106 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $225,990 Active 105 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $225,990 Active 104 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $225,990 Active 103 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $225,990 Active 102 DOM
39. 2026-06-24
    days on market $225,990 Active 100 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $225,990 Active 97 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $225,990 Active 94 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    price $225,990 Active 93 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $229,990 Active 93 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $229,990 Active 92 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $229,990 Active 91 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $229,990 Active 89 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $229,990 Active 88 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $229,990 Active 85 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,990 Active 84 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,990 Active 83 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,256
• − Property taxes: −$3,550
• − Insurance: −$1,183
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − Depreciation: −$6,884
• Taxable loss: −$5,715
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,372
• After-tax cash flow: $-236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,555–$19,665 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It is ready for a new owner or tenant with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and security. ↑
• Rental Clean the gutters — Clean gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Piney Woods El F TX #2,982/4,322 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $229,990 Zillow