800 S Warner St · Bay City, MI 48706

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,752 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1900 6,534 sqft lot $74/sqft · at area comps Est $129k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large Family Home. Master Bedroom on first floor, next to stairway to upstairs. Perfect family home. Large walk in dressing room/master closet off of master bedroom. Large extra walk in closet upstairs, off large foyer area at top of stairs. Perfect upstairs for kids. Basement has potential for finishing, and would make a great family room area. Fenced yard. Very large garage, finished with drywall. Less than a block away from Kolb Elementary school.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• MASTER BEDROOM ON FIRST FLOOR
• LARGE WALK IN DRESSING ROOM
• LARGE EXTRA WALK IN CLOSET
• FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential zoning
• Financial info: Details not provided
• HOA & community: Subdivision: ZAGELMEYER

Exterior

• Parking: Detached, paved, assigned garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Details not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,752; Details about foundation not provided
• Exterior features: Patio; Public maintained road; Lot approximately 50 x 100 (0.15 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Details not provided
• Flooring: Details not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central air
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Full basement with sump pump; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $130k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,246
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 0.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
803 S Warner St	0.03mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,686 (-4%)	8mo	$158,000	$94	79
509 Gies St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,748 (-0%)	6mo	$189,900	$109	64
514 S Kiesel St	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,526 (-13%)	4mo	$150,000	$98	58
1508 Raymond St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,690 (-4%)	5mo	$174,500	$103	57
204 N Mountain St	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,722 (-2%)	7mo	$159,900	$93	57
1301 S Chilson St	0.40mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,544 (-12%)	2mo	$132,500	$86	55
501 W Jenny St	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,628 (-7%)	6mo	$85,000	$52	54
305 E Jenny St	0.48mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,885 (+8%)	6mo	$137,000	$73	53
1208 S Chilson St	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,495 (-15%)	9mo	$140,000	$94	49
1400 S Chilson St	0.48mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,560 (-11%)	6mo	$133,000	$85	47
1704 S Warner St	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,962 (+12%)	5mo	$183,000	$93	41
307 N Warner St	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,492 (-15%)	0mo	$142,000	$95	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-11,228
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,953
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,130/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,156

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $129,900 Active 454-char remark

   Show marketing remark (454 chars)

   Large Family Home. Master Bedroom on first floor, next to stairway to upstairs. Perfect family home. Large walk in dressing room/master closet off of master bedroom. Large extra walk in closet upstairs, off large foyer area at top of stairs. Perfect upstairs for kids. Basement has potential for finishing, and would make a great family room area. Fenced yard. Very large garage, finished with drywall. Less than a block away from Kolb Elementary school.

2. 2026-05-13
   listed $129,900 Active 454-char remark

   Show marketing remark (454 chars)

   Large Family Home. Master Bedroom on first floor, next to stairway to upstairs. Perfect family home. Large walk in dressing room/master closet off of master bedroom. Large extra walk in closet upstairs, off large foyer area at top of stairs. Perfect upstairs for kids. Basement has potential for finishing, and would make a great family room area. Fenced yard. Very large garage, finished with drywall. Less than a block away from Kolb Elementary school.

3. 2018-04-25
   historical
4. 2014-05-15
   soldstatus $71,200
5. 2014-05-05
   soldstatus $71,200
6. 2013-11-04
   listed $69,900
7. 2009-04-23
   listed $76,900
8. 2006-09-30
   historical
9. 2006-03-31
   listed $111,900
10. 2002-11-01
    soldstatus $77,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,130 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,130 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,202
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,130
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$54
• After-tax cash flow: $1,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+68.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-26 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2018-04-25 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $71,200 Public Records
• 2014-05-05 Sold (MLS) $71,200 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-11-04 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-04-23 Listed $76,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-09-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-03-31 Listed $111,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,130 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.