28 Valley Cir · Lincoln, AL 35096

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,502 sqft · SingleFamily · 118 Days on market

Built 2022 6,969 sqft lot $166/sqft · at area comps Est $263k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the sought-after Lake Pointe community, this well maintained one-level home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with an easy living layout. Residents enjoy lake access, a community boat launch, and a neighborhood swimming pool, providing the perfect setting for boating, fishing, and relaxing summer days by the water. Inside, the home features a spacious living area, a comfortable primary suite, and two additional bedrooms ideal for family, guests, or a home office. The single-level design offers convenience and low-maintenance living. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or a weekend retreat, this home delivers the lifestyle Lake Pointe is known for.

Key facts

• Lake access
• Single-level design
• 6,969 sq ft lot

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• COMMUNITY BOAT LAUNCH
• NEIGHBORHOOD SWIMMING POOL
• SINGLE-LEVEL DESIGN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (36.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#230 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Talladega County (rural): math 15% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #75 of 129 in AL (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 189 units permitted in Talladega County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Talladega County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,216 (36.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,543
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -4.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26 Cove Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+9%)	9mo	$239,000	$146	76
165 Mountain Crest Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+2%)	23mo	$247,135	$161	76
195 Mountain Crest Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+2%)	22mo	$233,670	$152	72
185 Mountain Crest Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+2%)	23mo	$241,700	$157	72
39 Garden Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,471 (-2%)	19mo	$234,900	$160	72
127 Garden Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+5%)	20mo	$240,000	$152	67
146 Lakeshore Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+4%)	21mo	$242,000	$155	64
41 Mountain Crest Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,679 (+12%)	21mo	$255,285	$152	60
53 Mountain Crest Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,725 (+15%)	19mo	$262,995	$152	57
534 Shelton Shores Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+8%)	23mo	$220,000	$136	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $11,975
• Equity at exit: $111,843

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $67,744
• Equity at exit: $171,923

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35096

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,592 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $811/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,940

Max offer price $201,430

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 99 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 98 DOM
18. 2026-04-16
    price $250,000 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Lake Pointe community, this well maintained one-level home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with an easy living layout. Residents enjoy lake access, a community boat launch, and a neighborhood swimming pool, providing the perfect setting for boating, fishing, and relaxing summer days by the water. Inside, the home features a spacious living area, a comfortable primary suite, and two additional bedrooms ideal for family, guests, or a home office. The single-level design offers convenience and low-maintenance living. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or a weekend retreat, this home delivers the lifestyle Lake Pointe is known for.

19. 2026-02-21
    listed $255,000 Active 682-char remark

    Show marketing remark (682 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Lake Pointe community, this well maintained one-level home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with an easy living layout. Residents enjoy lake access, a community boat launch, and a neighborhood swimming pool, providing the perfect setting for boating, fishing, and relaxing summer days by the water. Inside, the home features a spacious living area, a comfortable primary suite, and two additional bedrooms ideal for family, guests, or a home office. The single-level design offers convenience and low-maintenance living. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or a weekend retreat, this home delivers the lifestyle Lake Pointe is known for.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $811 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$214/yr (+$18/mo · 26.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$811
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,528
• − Management: −$1,528
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,888
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,893
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Talladega County
• NCES district ID: 0103180
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,715
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7650
• State rank: #75 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #17221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, AL
• City population: 9,201
• Population (ZIP): 9,201

Population outlook (Talladega County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,905 people
• By 2030: 77,160 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 72,937 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 68,279 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 57,884 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 47,220 · -40.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 19% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Vietnamese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Talladega

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.9% · R 66.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.3pp toward R · 2008: -18.5pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+25.5 2016: R+25.6 2012: R+16.0 2008: R+18.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.96%
• Current HPI: 255.9195
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $250,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $255,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+54.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $811 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.