3909 Valley Ridge Dr · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

Built 2023 8,015 sqft lot Est $271k · 21% under $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous newer home with amazing upgrades sits on a lot and a half. This home features lots of beautiful shaker cabinets, newer appliances, stainless steel farm sink, large kitchen island, nice faucets throughout, sink in over-sized laundry room, laundry room big enough for a deep freezer or extra refrigerator, 2 inch blinds throughout, built-in desk, built-in entertainment center, lots of linen closet space, awesome primary bedroom closet, no carpet....nice vinyl flooring in the entire house, extra large breaker box on outside pole. Newer 10x12 shed, carport 14x28, metal roof. Sud-division is a lake community and also has a community swimming pool. There is a park across the street so no neighbors across the street or directly behind you. Refrigerator included.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Newer storage shed
• 8,015 sq ft lot

Tags

• BUILT-IN ENTERTAINMENT CENTER
• CUSTOM WINDOW COVERINGS
• METAL ROOF
• DESIGNATED OFFICE SPACE
• OVERSIZED LAUNDRY ROOM
• NEWER STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Accessory unit present; Municipal utility district: No
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Oak Trails Owners Association); Annual association fee of $24; Association provides full use of facilities and management services

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Covered parking (1); Carport spaces: 1
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Aerobic septic; Co-op electric; Co-op water; Cable available; Electricity available and connected; All-weather road
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Property not attached; Subdivision: Oak Trail Shores Sec A
• Construction: Built in 2023; Siding exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier or other foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link and privacy fencing; Covered patio/porch with awning(s); Easements for utilities; Accessory unit (120 sq ft)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite bath, dual sinks, linen closet, medicine cabinet and custom closet system
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; Eat-in kitchen; Flat screen wiring; High speed internet available; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Walk-in closets; Window coverings; 1 living area; 1 dining area; Room count: 2; Levels: One
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer hookups; Electric dryer hookup; Full-size washer/dryer area; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nettie Baccus El (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 466 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $211,775 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.01%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,264
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3909 Valley Ridge Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	10mo	$199,999	$128	92
2801 Beechwood St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+0%)	12mo	$265,000	$168	81
2617 Hillside Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	2mo	$255,000	$152	77
2715 S Shadowood St	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,596 (+2%)	6mo	$250,000	$157	72
2720 Pinoak St	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,524 (-3%)	12mo	$259,000	$170	72
2803 Beechwood St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,361 (-13%)	2mo	$245,000	$180	67
2820 Oak Wood St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,500 (-4%)	3mo	$62,400	$42	67
4403 Mountain Hollow Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+1%)	13mo	$286,000	$181	63
4401 Mountain Hollow Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+1%)	13mo	$286,000	$181	63
2709 Terrace Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-12%)	8mo	$238,000	$173	52
2707 Terrace Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,376 (-12%)	12mo	$248,000	$180	47
2710 Terrace Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-14%)	12mo	$248,000	$184	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-26,004
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-21,854
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,138 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,883

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4321 Terri Lee Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$2,075	$1.50	1d	1	0.89mi
3318 Crystal Clear Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1772	$2,500	$1.41	43d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $215,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $225,000 Active
15. 2025-09-04
    soldstatus
16. 2025-09-03
    soldstatus Closed 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Gorgeous newer home with amazing upgrades sits on a lot and a half. This home features lots of beautiful shaker cabinets, newer appliances, stainless steel farm sink, large kitchen island, nice faucets throughout, sink in over-sized laundry room, laundry room big enough for a deep freezer or extra refrigerator, 2 inch blinds throughout, built-in desk, built-in entertainment center, lots of linen closet space, awesome primary bedroom closet, no carpet....nice vinyl flooring in the entire house, extra large breaker box on outside pole. Newer 10x12 shed, carport 14x28, metal roof. Sud-division is a lake community and also has a community swimming pool. There is a park across the street so no neighbors across the street or directly behind you. Refrigerator included.

17. 2025-08-27
    status Pending 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Gorgeous newer home with amazing upgrades sits on a lot and a half. This home features lots of beautiful shaker cabinets, newer appliances, stainless steel farm sink, large kitchen island, nice faucets throughout, sink in over-sized laundry room, laundry room big enough for a deep freezer or extra refrigerator, 2 inch blinds throughout, built-in desk, built-in entertainment center, lots of linen closet space, awesome primary bedroom closet, no carpet....nice vinyl flooring in the entire house, extra large breaker box on outside pole. Newer 10x12 shed, carport 14x28, metal roof. Sud-division is a lake community and also has a community swimming pool. There is a park across the street so no neighbors across the street or directly behind you. Refrigerator included.

18. 2025-08-13
    historical Active Option Contract 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Gorgeous newer home with amazing upgrades sits on a lot and a half. This home features lots of beautiful shaker cabinets, newer appliances, stainless steel farm sink, large kitchen island, nice faucets throughout, sink in over-sized laundry room, laundry room big enough for a deep freezer or extra refrigerator, 2 inch blinds throughout, built-in desk, built-in entertainment center, lots of linen closet space, awesome primary bedroom closet, no carpet....nice vinyl flooring in the entire house, extra large breaker box on outside pole. Newer 10x12 shed, carport 14x28, metal roof. Sud-division is a lake community and also has a community swimming pool. There is a park across the street so no neighbors across the street or directly behind you. Refrigerator included.

19. 2025-08-06
    listed $199,999 Active 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Gorgeous newer home with amazing upgrades sits on a lot and a half. This home features lots of beautiful shaker cabinets, newer appliances, stainless steel farm sink, large kitchen island, nice faucets throughout, sink in over-sized laundry room, laundry room big enough for a deep freezer or extra refrigerator, 2 inch blinds throughout, built-in desk, built-in entertainment center, lots of linen closet space, awesome primary bedroom closet, no carpet....nice vinyl flooring in the entire house, extra large breaker box on outside pole. Newer 10x12 shed, carport 14x28, metal roof. Sud-division is a lake community and also has a community swimming pool. There is a park across the street so no neighbors across the street or directly behind you. Refrigerator included.

20. 2024-02-19
    historical
21. 2024-01-26
    listed $205,000 Active
22. 2023-08-30
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2023-08-05
    status Pending
24. 2023-05-10
    listed $25,000 Active
25. 1987-07-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$1,071
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$257
• After-tax cash flow: $2,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+800.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-09-03 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2025-08-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-08-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-08-06 Listed $199,999 NTREIS
• 2024-02-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-01-26 Listed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2023-08-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-08-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-05-10 Listed $25,000 NTREIS
• 1987-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+16.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $346 · +15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.