3304 Lone Tree Rd · Victoria, TX 77901

$79,400

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 2000 6,098 sqft lot $61/sqft · 12% below area Est $91k · 12% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located at 3304 Lone Tree, this 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is geared toward investors or buyers ready to take on a renovation project. The property features a spacious living room that flows into a large kitchen, offering a functional layout with solid potential. A previous carport conversion adds additional square footage and serves as a primary bedroom, providing flexibility to the floor plan. The home will require repairs and updates, but with the right improvements, it can be transformed into a nice investment property or home. If you’ve been looking for your next project with upside, this is one to check out.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Converted garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation; Year built (assessor source)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch; Chain link fencing; Mature trees; City lot

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance list provided
• Bedrooms: Converted garage used as a room
• Flooring: Concrete; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Some electric appliances (electric-powered systems noted)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Pantry; Exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Dedicated laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $549 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $66k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,209 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.69%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,588
• List price: $79,400
• Delta: -12.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3304 Lone Tree Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,296 (0%)	1mo	$65,500	$51	94
3010 Lone Tree Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,365 (+5%)	6mo	$50,000	$37	69
3501 Morningside St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,167 (-10%)	6mo	$169,900	$146	63
3508 Meadowlane St	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,216 (-6%)	6mo	$89,500	$74	63
3309 Avondale St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,124 (-13%)	1mo	$185,000	$165	56
3603 Bobolink St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,150 (-11%)	8mo	$85,000	$74	53
3107 Flamingo	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,452 (+12%)	5mo	$223,000	$154	51
1309 La Valliere St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,390 (+7%)	1mo	$119,000	$86	51
3204 Oaklawn St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,129 (-13%)	2mo	$60,000	$53	50
1905 N Ben Wilson St #15	0.52mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,152 (-11%)	8mo	$59,900	$52	44
3503 Hanselman Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,105 (-15%)	6mo	$244,500	$221	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $3,417
• Equity at exit: $11,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $15,179
• Equity at exit: $6,865

Cash invested: $22,232 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77901

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,185 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$416
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,128/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $793

Max offer price $79,400

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,850
• Closing costs: $2,382
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2402 N Ben Wilson St Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,580	$1.60	43d	20	0.71mi
212 Sam Houston Dr Unit 220 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	974	$1,013	$1.04	43d	1	1.18mi
212 Sam Houston Dr Unit 209 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	974	$963	$0.99	43d	1	1.18mi
102 Palmwood Dr Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,045	$0.95	43d	1	1.21mi
306 Sam Houston Dr Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	770	$1,370	$1.78	43d	4	1.21mi
1810 E Colorado St Victoria, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,112	$1.23	43d	8	1.23mi
203 Palmwood Dr Unit B Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,350	$1.22	43d	1	1.29mi
1603 E Brazos St Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	796	$975	$1.22	43d	6	1.33mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   historical Active Under Contract 623-char remark
2. 2026-05-12
   price $79,400 623-char remark
3. 2026-05-06
   listed $79,500 Active 623-char remark
4. 2020-09-23
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,128 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,128 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,448
• − Property taxes: −$2,128
• − Insurance: −$397
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,137
• − Management: −$1,137
• − Depreciation: −$2,310
• Taxable income: $2,660
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$638
• After-tax cash flow: $3,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, TX
• County: Victoria County · 69,915 people
• City population: 69,915
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,854
• Household income: $57,923
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1802.0

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.62%
• Current HPI: 138.3569
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) $65,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-28 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2026-05-15 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $79,400 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $79,500 CTXMLS
• 2020-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,128 · -10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.