431 Van Buren St Unit D3 · Fort Myers, FL 33916

$85,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 636 sqft · Condo public records · 306 Days on market

Built 1975 $280/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom ground-floor unit in the desirable 55+ community of Seminole Garden Apartments. Offering 636 sq ft of refreshed living space, this home features new A/C, new flooring, fresh paint, and updated fixtures throughout for modern comfort and style. The inviting living room flows into the dining area located just off the kitchen, which offers plenty of cabinet space for storage. The spacious bedroom provides a relaxing retreat, while the bathroom has been upgraded with a new vanity and a sleek glass-enclosed shower. Additional highlights include hurricane-impact windows, washer/dryer hookup, one assigned parking spot, guest parking, and pet

Key facts

• Washer dryer hookup
• Updated fixtures
• Ground-floor unit

Tags

• GROUND-FLOOR UNIT
• UPDATED FIXTURES
• HURRICANE-IMPACT WINDOWS
• WASHER DRYER HOOKUP
• ASSIGNED PARKING SPOT
• PET FRIENDLY POLICIES

Property features AI

Other

• Possession: Possession at closing
• Multi-unit & location: Part of Seminole Garden Apartments (Building D, Unit 3); Complex contains 48 units, 8 in the building; Single-floor unit (1 floor); Lot unit 3; Paved road access; Central irrigation; Landscaped area view; Restrictions: Deeded, No Rental

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with monthly fee; HOA fee paid monthly; HOA covers insurance, irrigation water, laundry facilities, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, exterior pest control, reserves, sewer, street lights, street maintenance, trash removal and water; Professional management; Community amenities include BBQ/picnic area, bike storage, billiards, common laundry, community pool, exercise room, extra storage, internet access, play area, shuffleboard, sidewalk and streetlights; Non-gated community; Total annual recurring HOA fees: $3,360; One-time fees: $100

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned parking space; Guest parking available
• Security: Impact resistant windows (storm protection)
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential garden apartment in a low-rise (1–3) building; Garden-style apartment; Rear exposure faces north; Zero lot line
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Metal roof; Built in 1975
• Exterior features: Courtyard; Stucco exterior; Impact resistant windows

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; No master bath
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Smoke detectors; Dining area in living room; Laundry located inside the residence; Unfurnished; Other floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.0% in Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in FL, #383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.3%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $66k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.04%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-9,369
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-10,765
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33916

• Home prices YoY: -28.2%
• Rents YoY: -4.3%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,147 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $307/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$280
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $996

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $144	+0% $120	+5% $96	+10% $72
Rent	-10% $29	-5% $74	+0% $120	+5% $165	+10% $210
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $141	base $120	+0.5pp $98	+1.0pp $75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4104 Desoto Ave Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,195	$1.71	24d	1	0.48mi
3744 Estelle Ave Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	725	$999	$1.38	24d	1	0.51mi
9145 Flying Eagle DR Tice, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1072	$1,693	$1.58	3d	14	0.55mi
704 Karlov St Unit 704 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	725	$1,095	$1.51	3d	1	0.56mi
3814 Desoto Ave Fort Myers, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$959	$1.37	3d	1	0.60mi
464 Carolina Ave Unit A Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	714	$1,150	$1.61	3d	1	0.88mi
464 Carolina Ave Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$975	$1.30	20d	1	0.88mi
420 Fairfax Dr Unit 5 Fort Myers, FL	1.0	1.0	476	$1,200	$2.52	11d	1	1.18mi
4900 Tice St Unit 5 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	24d	1	1.19mi
221 Maria St Unit 225 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,095	$1.52	24d	1	1.28mi
227 Maria St Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,095	$1.52	24d	1	1.28mi
3225 E Riverside Dr Fort Myers, FL	1.0	1.0	560	$1,800	$3.21	24d	1	1.35mi
3175 Royalston Ave #105 Fort Myers, FL	1.0	1.0	476	$1,059	$2.22	24d	1	1.42mi
3155 Royalston Ave #201 Fort Myers, FL	1.0	1.0	476	$1,059	$2.22	24d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $280 · $3,360/yr
• Likely covers: parking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 306 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 304 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 299 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 298 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 297 DOM
6. 2026-01-09
   price $85,000
7. 2025-12-05
   price $91,600
8. 2025-10-02
   status Active
9. 2025-07-31
   listed $99,600 Active
10. 2025-03-11
    status Pending
11. 2025-03-11
    historical
12. 2025-02-24
    price $65,000
13. 2025-02-10
    price $69,000
14. 2025-01-30
    listed $75,000 Active
15. 2019-10-14
    soldstatus $65,500
16. 1984-11-01
    soldstatus $29,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $307 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $706 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$399/yr (+$33/mo · 129.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$307
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,102
• − Management: −$1,102
• − HOA: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $240
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$58
• After-tax cash flow: $1,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Myers

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #383

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 278,598
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,943
• Household income: $52,586
• Rent vs Own: 66.2% rent · 33.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2324.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 28% Two or more races 21% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 7% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 3% Hispanic 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.73%
• Current HPI: 243.2657
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.30%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+188.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $85,000 BEARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $91,600 BEARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Relisted — BEARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $99,600 BEARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2025-03-11 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-02-24 Price Changed $65,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-02-10 Price Changed $69,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-01-30 Listed $75,000 FORTMLS
• 2019-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $65,500 Public Records
• 1984-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $307 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.