865 River Ln · Lavon, TX 75166

$317,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,068 sqft · SingleFamily · 61 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 4,800 sqft lot $154/sqft · 6% above area Est $301k · 6% over $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21206956 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ A floor plan that epitomizes grace and functionality, offering a harmonious blend of classic charm and contemporary comfort - the Magnolia. Designed with meticulous attention to detail, this layout creates an inviting space ideal for both relaxed living and elegant entertaining. In essence, the Magnolia floor plan offers a perfect blend of elegance and everyday convenience, delivering a living experience that is both refined and accommodating. Discover the Magnolia, where timeless beauty meets modern living.

Key facts

• 4,800 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $318k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($119/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.5% in Lavon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 640 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,263 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.13%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,398
• List price: $317,990
• Delta: 5.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
865 River Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,068 (0%)	0mo	$317,990	$154	100
873 River Ln	0.01mi	4/2.5	2,311 (+12%)	1mo	$337,990	$146	79
1211 Paintbrush Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,321 (+12%)	1mo	$337,990	$146	77
953 Dahlia Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,071 (+0%)	1mo	$314,990	$152	75
1216 Bellflower Rd	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,328 (+13%)	2mo	$334,990	$144	75
657 Chipper Trl	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,233 (+8%)	2mo	$329,990	$148	72
685 Sierra Rdg	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,131 (+3%)	1mo	$349,490	$164	70
525 Epiphany Ln	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,133 (+3%)	1mo	$321,990	$151	65
671 Sierra Rdg	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,965 (-5%)	2mo	$317,990	$162	61
411 Epiphany Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,935 (-6%)	0mo	$348,990	$180	58
416 Epiphany Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,845 (-11%)	1mo	$309,990	$168	55
811 River Sky Rd	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,357 (+14%)	1mo	$449,900	$191	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-50,820
• Equity at exit: $47,413

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-43,129
• Equity at exit: $27,494

Cash invested: $89,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 640
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,863 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$397 /mo · $4,770/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,850

Max offer price $317,990

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $230	-5% $120	+0% $10	+5% $-100	+10% $-210
Rent	-10% $-216	-5% $-103	+0% $10	+5% $123	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $91	base $10	+0.5pp $-72	+1.0pp $-156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,498
• Closing costs: $9,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
858 River Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,200	$1.46	19d	1	0.00mi
865 River Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2068	$2,400	$1.16	7d	1	0.03mi
876 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2321	$3,550	$1.53	0d	1	0.07mi
888 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2071	$3,550	$1.71	0d	1	0.09mi
1093 Eagle Run Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2709	$2,700	$1.00	1d	1	0.21mi
718 Moonlight Pl , TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,595	$1.15	45d	1	0.29mi
1244 Coneflower Pl Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2518	$3,600	$1.43	45d	1	0.35mi
759 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,000	$1.09	14d	1	0.44mi
684 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,850	$1.13	45d	1	0.45mi
600 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,300	$1.26	45d	1	0.50mi
575 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	17d	1	0.50mi
946 Olive Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,650	$1.63	9d	1	0.51mi
592 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,195	$1.05	45d	1	0.52mi
557 London Dr Unit 557LD Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	9d	1	0.52mi
536 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	17d	1	0.53mi
545 London Dr Unit 545LD Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2406	$2,295	$0.95	17d	1	0.54mi
637 Sierra Rdg Lavon, TX	5.0	4.0	2937	$3,950	$1.34	45d	1	0.54mi
787 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,900	$1.33	45d	1	0.54mi
964 Dahlia Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2062	$3,550	$1.72	9d	1	0.55mi
744 Devonshire Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,849	$1.16	8d	1	0.56mi
772 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,850	$1.27	45d	1	0.57mi
509 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	45d	1	0.59mi
739 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,950	$1.04	45d	1	0.59mi
760 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,000	$1.69	45d	1	0.63mi
736 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$2,400	$1.27	26d	1	0.65mi
778 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,750	$1.07	14d	1	0.66mi
766 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$6,200	$3.44	4d	1	0.67mi
830 Oakhurst Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2722	$2,495	$0.92	26d	1	0.70mi
731 Yorkshire Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2542	$2,400	$0.94	45d	1	0.73mi
902 Tulip TRL Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2087	$2,500	$1.20	45d	1	0.77mi
755 Revere Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,100	$1.15	26d	1	0.79mi
1066 Carpenter Ct Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2800	$3,200	$1.14	45d	1	1.14mi
144 Millwood Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	3.5	2700	$2,600	$0.96	45d	1	1.26mi
1156 Del Rio Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2532	$2,895	$1.14	26d	1	1.28mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	45d	1	1.31mi
453 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2155	$2,200	$1.02	45d	1	1.33mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,299	$1.31	6d	1	1.38mi
476 Eisenhower Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,875	$1.21	22d	1	1.38mi
500 Mustang Ct Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	2280	$2,195	$0.96	26d	1	1.39mi
590 Arthur Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,850	$1.19	45d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   MLS# 21206956 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ A floor plan that epitomizes grace and functionality, offering a harmonious blend of classic charm and contemporary comfort - the Magnolia. Designed with meticulous attention to detail, this layout creates an inviting space ideal for both relaxed living and elegant entertaining. In essence, the Magnolia floor plan offers a perfect blend of elegance and everyday convenience, delivering a living experience that is both refined and accommodating. Discover the Magnolia, where timeless beauty meets modern living.

2. 2026-04-01
   price $317,990 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   MLS# 21206956 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ A floor plan that epitomizes grace and functionality, offering a harmonious blend of classic charm and contemporary comfort - the Magnolia. Designed with meticulous attention to detail, this layout creates an inviting space ideal for both relaxed living and elegant entertaining. In essence, the Magnolia floor plan offers a perfect blend of elegance and everyday convenience, delivering a living experience that is both refined and accommodating. Discover the Magnolia, where timeless beauty meets modern living.

3. 2026-03-13
   price $316,990 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   MLS# 21206956 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ A floor plan that epitomizes grace and functionality, offering a harmonious blend of classic charm and contemporary comfort - the Magnolia. Designed with meticulous attention to detail, this layout creates an inviting space ideal for both relaxed living and elegant entertaining. In essence, the Magnolia floor plan offers a perfect blend of elegance and everyday convenience, delivering a living experience that is both refined and accommodating. Discover the Magnolia, where timeless beauty meets modern living.

4. 2026-03-12
   listed $314,990 Active 586-char remark

   Show marketing remark (586 chars)

   MLS# 21206956 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ A floor plan that epitomizes grace and functionality, offering a harmonious blend of classic charm and contemporary comfort - the Magnolia. Designed with meticulous attention to detail, this layout creates an inviting space ideal for both relaxed living and elegant entertaining. In essence, the Magnolia floor plan offers a perfect blend of elegance and everyday convenience, delivering a living experience that is both refined and accommodating. Discover the Magnolia, where timeless beauty meets modern living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,812
• − Property taxes: −$4,770
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,748
• − Management: −$2,748
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$9,251
• Taxable loss: −$5,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,252
• After-tax cash flow: $1,371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor aesthetic upgrades to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lavon, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $317,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $316,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $314,990 NTREIS