11334 Autumn Ln · Splendora, TX 77328

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2020 1.00 ac lot Est $333k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Recently renovated mobile home on spacious 1-acre lot with updated roof, HVAC, water heater, paint, flooring, and front porch steps, along with many other updates. Unrestricted property, move-in ready, perfect for calling home. Minutes from 99 with easy airport access, offering a laid-back lifestyle with proximity to major cities. Book your showing today!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2020

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; 1.0 acre lot
• Construction: Built in 2020; Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 12 x 14; Bedroom (first floor) — 12 x 14; Bedroom (first floor) — 11 x 14; Bedroom (first floor) — 11 x 14
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace (1); Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (first floor) — 14 x 6

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greenleaf El (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 797 students, 70% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,358 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.25%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $332,880
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10943 Independence Rd	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,084 (-9%)	4mo	$329,504	$158	54
11005 Crossno Dr	0.67mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,280 (0%)	15mo	$325,000	$143	51
25988 Liberation Rd	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,128 (-7%)	9mo	$289,990	$136	50
11056 Patriot Ct	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,052 (-10%)	11mo	$299,758	$146	49
25980 Liberation Rd	0.55mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,542 (+12%)	4mo	$329,990	$130	43
26023 Liberation Rd	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,052 (-10%)	19mo	$309,978	$151	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-18,991
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $5,757
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77328

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,104 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,353/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,755

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $403	-5% $339	+0% $275	+5% $212	+10% $148
Rent	-10% $109	-5% $192	+0% $275	+5% $358	+10% $442
Rate	-1.0pp $389	-0.5pp $333	base $275	+0.5pp $217	+1.0pp $158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10659 Lost Maples Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	22d	1	1.20mi
25507 Greenwood Canyon Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1950	$2,320	$1.19	2d	1	1.23mi
10487 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	22d	1	1.48mi
25432 Birch Hill Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	20d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 357-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $225,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,353 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,764/yr (+$230/mo · 204.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,353
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$423
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$101
• After-tax cash flow: $3,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Jacinto County · 17,208 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,208
• Household income: $62,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 58.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.82%
• Current HPI: 273.6604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-01-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-08-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records