20224 SE 156th Pl · Silver Springs Shores East, FL 32784

$95,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1976 7,841 sqft lot Est $128k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in the charming town of Umatilla! Tucked away on private dirt roads and surrounded by mature landscaping, this 1 bedroom, 2 bath, two story home offers approximately 1,200 square feet of potential and privacy. Whether you are looking for your next investment project, weekend retreat, or a place to create your own vision from the ground up, this property is full of possibilities. The home is in need of updates and repairs, making it an ideal fixer upper for buyers ready to bring their creativity and personal touch. Enjoy the peaceful small town atmosphere that Umatilla is known for, while still being conveniently located near lakes, outdoor recreation, and the natural beau

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Mature landscaping
• Quiet surroundings

Tags

• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• QUIET SURROUNDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R4; Property subtype: Single Family Residence; Furnished: Unfurnished; Number of rooms: 5; Living area reported as 1,200 sq ft (building area total 1,564 sq ft)
• Financial info: Tax information available but omitted
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated; Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewage; Private utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two stories; Faces north; Entry level information not provided
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a lot of about 0.18 acres
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 100; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 5.2% in Silver Springs Shores East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stanton-Weirsdale Elementary School (math 42% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 544 students, 70% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $95k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.89%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,400
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20145 SE Highway 42	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,351 (+13%)	14mo	$145,000	$107	61
20735 SE Highway 42	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,150 (-4%)	3mo	$195,000	$170	57
20560 SE 155th Pl	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,334 (+11%)	18mo	$15,000	$11	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $12,733
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $47,420
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32784

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,430 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,815/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $872

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $95,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $109,900 Active
17. 1999-02-15
    soldstatus $47,550

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,815 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,815 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,815
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,373
• − Management: −$1,373
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $4,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$970
• After-tax cash flow: $4,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores East

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,859

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.66%
• Current HPI: 352.4197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+131.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $47,550 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,815 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.