234 SE James Ave · Watertown, FL 32025

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,666 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 247 Days on market

Built 1978 0.33 ac lot Est $222k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Turnkey Income-Producing Home Near Town and School! Looking for a fantastic investment opportunity? This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is ideally located just minutes from downtown and nestled close to local schools. Whether you're looking to expand your portfolio or find a perfect spot for your family, this property checks all the boxes!

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Home design: Single-story residential property; Zoned residential
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; Central heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 5.5% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#798 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $150k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.37%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,578
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
231 SE Golf Club Ave	0.28mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,696 (+2%)	6mo	$119,000	$70	72
195 SE Emma Pl	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,748 (+5%)	4mo	$232,000	$133	65
1104 SE Magnolia Loop	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-4%)	4mo	$245,655	$154	56
795 SE Defender Dr	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,568 (-6%)	8mo	$193,500	$123	53
132 SE Tribble St	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,800 (+8%)	3mo	$274,900	$153	52
211 NE Labelle Ter	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,726 (+4%)	9mo	$85,000	$49	52
114 SE Ibis Way	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,745 (+5%)	8mo	$257,050	$147	52
772 SE Defender Dr	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,509 (-9%)	8mo	$170,000	$113	48
505 NE Williams St	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-6%)	8mo	$193,000	$124	45
465 SE Rosewood Cir	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-11%)	6mo	$255,000	$171	39
993 SE Putnam St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,438 (-14%)	6mo	$165,000	$115	38
186 SE Rosewood Cir	0.73mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,448 (-13%)	6mo	$235,000	$162	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $104,821
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.92×
• Total profit: $290,547
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32025

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,099/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,296

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 247 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 244 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 243 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 241 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 240 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 236 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 235 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 232 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 231 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 230 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 229 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 228 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 227 DOM
17. 2025-10-15
    listed $150,000 Active
18. 2025-05-28
    listed $150,000 Active
19. 2011-12-06
    soldstatus $90,000
20. 1997-07-30
    soldstatus $48,000
21. 1994-10-01
    soldstatus $50,000
22. 1977-05-01
    soldstatus $10,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,099 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,099 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,099
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,685
• − Management: −$1,685
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,081
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$499
• After-tax cash flow: $3,855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #798
• US rank: #18481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,948
• Household income: $55,004
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 754.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 276.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1276.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-15 Listed $150,000 NFMLS
• 2025-05-28 Listed $150,000 NFMLS
• 2011-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1997-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1994-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1977-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,099 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.