3004 Calhoun Falls Dr · Katy, TX 77807

$272,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $311k · 12% under $97/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Ramsey Floor Plan - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• New construction
• Single story
• Walk in closet

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• SINGLE STORY
• PENINSULA STYLE KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info: List price $270,990
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Security:
• Utilities:
• Home design: Single-family home (Ramsey plan); Spec new construction
• Construction:
• Exterior features:

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling:
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility:

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-721/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 304 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,477 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,744
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3009 Duskshine Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,776 (+2%)	1mo	$316,990	$178	87
3008 Angelic Rose Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,670 (-4%)	1mo	$294,990	$177	81
3072 Sunset Glory Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,670 (-4%)	0mo	$292,990	$175	79
3036 Huntersville Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (+8%)	1mo	$334,990	$179	78
3064 Sunset Glory Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (+1%)	1mo	$365,990	$209	77
3020 Huntersville Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (+8%)	1mo	$334,990	$179	76
3064 Huntersville Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,538 (-11%)	1mo	$311,990	$203	70
3072 Waterwood Pass Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,941 (+12%)	1mo	$368,990	$190	70
3044 Waterwood Pass Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,973 (+14%)	1mo	$361,990	$183	58
4632 Cleo Day Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,859 (+7%)	0mo	$299,990	$161	58
3017 Paradise Capri Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,883 (+8%)	0mo	$300,000	$159	58
3036 Eagle Bay Dr	0.67mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,884 (+8%)	1mo	$284,990	$151	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-47,968
• Equity at exit: $40,704

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-46,307
• Equity at exit: $23,603

Cash invested: $76,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77807

• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,435 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,095/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$97
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,511

Max offer price $264,293

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $129	-5% $34	+0% $-60	+5% $-154	+10% $-249
Rent	-10% $-252	-5% $-156	+0% $-60	+5% $36	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $9	base $-60	+0.5pp $-131	+1.0pp $-203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,248
• Closing costs: $8,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	45d	1	0.13mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	25d	1	0.14mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	25d	1	0.16mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	0.19mi
3004 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,942	$1.32	45d	1	0.22mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	25d	1	0.23mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	25d	1	0.24mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	25d	1	0.27mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,185	$1.42	14d	1	0.27mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	25d	1	0.29mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	25d	1	0.30mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	0.31mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	5d	1	0.38mi
3064 Dawn Sound Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	45d	1	0.54mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	16d	1	0.56mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	14d	1	0.57mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	25d	1	0.58mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,599	$1.21	0d	1	0.64mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	45d	1	0.64mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.66mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	22d	1	0.71mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	45d	1	0.82mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	0d	25	0.97mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	45d	1	1.04mi
435 Lone Rider Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,895	$1.40	45d	1	1.16mi
412 San Miguel Creek Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,040	$1.49	0d	1	1.34mi
408 San Miguel Creek Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,265	$1.43	0d	1	1.35mi
404 San Miguel Creek Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$2,290	$1.38	0d	1	1.36mi
400 San Miguel Creek Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,985	$1.63	0d	1	1.37mi
401 San Miguel Creek Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,945	$1.23	5d	1	1.37mi
2654 Aruba Bend Dr Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1958	$3,015	$1.54	0d	51	1.42mi
452 Texas Pecan Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,995	$1.31	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $97 · $1,164/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $272,990 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,990 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 633-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listing id $270,990 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 414-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $270,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,292
• − Property taxes: −$4,095
• − Insurance: −$1,365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,337
• − Management: −$2,337
• − HOA: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$7,942
• Taxable loss: −$5,315
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,275
• After-tax cash flow: $554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,227
• Household income: $74,375
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 629.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 18% Black 14% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Guatemala, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.38%
• Current HPI: 186.1387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B