23656 Charterwood Dr · Patton Village, TX 77372

$195,200

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1987 1.55 ac lot $102/sqft · 31% below area Est $276k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD homes are sold “as is”. HUD Case #512-500634. 3 bedrooms, 2 baths on just over 1.5 acres. Tons of space and detached 2 car garage/wprkshop. No representation is made to information provided including taxes, sqft, schools, features, etc. Buyer must verify all information.

Key facts

• 1.55 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1987

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#977 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 548 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $115k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,258 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.85%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,056
• List price: $195,200
• Delta: -29.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17085 Pinewood Branch Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (-2%)	3mo	$290,990	$155	79
22632 Hackberry Leaf Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (-2%)	1mo	$284,990	$152	72
16923 Pin Cherry Leaf Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,040 (+6%)	1mo	$295,990	$145	69
17081 Pinewood Branch Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (-10%)	3mo	$268,990	$155	67
22543 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (-10%)	3mo	$270,990	$156	63
22439 Douglas Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-13%)	1mo	$255,990	$153	58
22491 Douglas Ct	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (-12%)	3mo	$250,990	$149	57
22471 Douglas Ct	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,668 (-13%)	3mo	$254,990	$153	57
22455 Douglas Ct	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,668 (-13%)	2mo	$252,990	$152	56
22427 Douglas Ct	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,674 (-13%)	2mo	$263,990	$158	54
22361 Mountain Pine Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,739 (-9%)	0mo	$277,500	$160	52
17202 Black Ash Ct	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,139 (+11%)	1mo	$302,990	$142	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-42,589
• Equity at exit: $29,105

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-50,646
• Equity at exit: $16,877

Cash invested: $54,656 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 548
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,024
• Tax from tax record: −$521 /mo · $6,254/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,058

Max offer price $164,258

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-65	-5% $-120	+0% $-175	+5% $-230	+10% $-286
Rent	-10% $-320	-5% $-248	+0% $-175	+5% $-103	+10% $-30
Rate	-1.0pp $-77	-0.5pp $-126	base $-175	+0.5pp $-226	+1.0pp $-277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,800
• Closing costs: $5,856
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21811 Hickory Springs Ct New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1691	$1,700	$1.01	26d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,200 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,200 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,200 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,200 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,200 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,200 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,200 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,200 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,200 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,200 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,200 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,200 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,200 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,200 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,200 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    price $220,000 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    HUD homes are sold “as is”. HUD Case #512-500634. 3 bedrooms, 2 baths on just over 1.5 acres. Tons of space and detached 2 car garage/wprkshop. No representation is made to information provided including taxes, sqft, schools, features, etc. Buyer must verify all information.

17. 2026-03-18
    price $285,200 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    HUD homes are sold “as is”. HUD Case #512-500634. 3 bedrooms, 2 baths on just over 1.5 acres. Tons of space and detached 2 car garage/wprkshop. No representation is made to information provided including taxes, sqft, schools, features, etc. Buyer must verify all information.

18. 2026-01-28
    listed $310,000 Active 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    HUD homes are sold “as is”. HUD Case #512-500634. 3 bedrooms, 2 baths on just over 1.5 acres. Tons of space and detached 2 car garage/wprkshop. No representation is made to information provided including taxes, sqft, schools, features, etc. Buyer must verify all information.

19. 2023-08-16
    historical
20. 2023-05-09
    listed $285,000 Active
21. 2022-10-13
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2022-10-13
    soldstatus
23. 2022-09-07
    status Pending
24. 2022-08-28
    status Option Pending
25. 2022-08-24
    price $250,000
26. 2022-07-25
    price $285,000
27. 2022-07-16
    listed $299,000 Active
28. 2022-07-14
    listed $299,000
29. 2022-07-14
    historical
30. 2020-12-18
    soldstatus
31. 2006-09-26
    historical
32. 2006-08-22
    listed $79,995

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,254 · $521/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,254 · $521/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,934
• − Property taxes: −$6,254
• − Insurance: −$976
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,763
• − Management: −$1,763
• − Depreciation: −$5,679
• Taxable loss: −$5,329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,279
• After-tax cash flow: $-823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Patton Village

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #977
• US rank: #17313

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+175.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $285,200 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-05-09 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-09-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-24 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-25 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-16 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-07-14 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2020-12-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-09-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-08-22 Listed $79,995 HARMLS

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,254 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.