117 Hill St · Fredericksburg, VA 22408

$299,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1951 $284/sqft · 16% above area Est $343k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the charming Cottage Green neighborhood, this delightful Cape Cod home exudes warmth and character. With a thoughtfully designed space, it features four inviting bedrooms and two full bathrooms, perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. The traditional floor plan flows seamlessly, highlighted by a cozy breakfast area and a country style kitchen that beckons culinary creativity. Step outside to discover your own personal oasis, complete with an inground pool (concrete/salt) and patio, ideal for summer gatherings or quiet evenings under the stars. Close to I95, VRE, hospitals, shoppings & schools. Note: The pool is not open and up to the buyer to open. Pics of pool refle

Key facts

• Pool
• Built 1951
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling fuel; Natural gas for heating and hot water
• Home design: Detached property; Estimated year built; Crawl space foundation
• Construction: Crawl space foundation; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Rear fencing; Deck(s); Patio(s); Personal pool; Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level; Two bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level listed as full)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating and hot water; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast area; Country-style kitchen; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-floor laundry hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-209 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (31.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#299 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-, housing B+; Watch: crime F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Battlefield Middle (math 37% / reading 64%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 791 students, 66% FRL); Courtland High (math 54% / reading 86%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 1,556 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 30% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $300k implies a 328% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,881 (31.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.99%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,356
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -1.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
113 Beauregard St	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,028 (-3%)	17mo	$316,250	$308	78
3200 Lafayette Blvd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+6%)	8mo	$408,000	$364	68
120 Hudgins Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,134 (+7%)	18mo	$349,000	$308	61
111 Beauregard St	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	19mo	$180,000	$188	60
402 Butternut Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+8%)	3mo	$400,000	$350	57
110 Beauregard St	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,184 (+12%)	13mo	$311,250	$263	57
3005 Lafayette Blvd	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,103 (+4%)	18mo	$240,000	$218	55
4617 Harrison Rd	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,175 (+11%)	14mo	$325,000	$277	53
4404 Hotchkiss St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+8%)	18mo	$143,900	$126	48
121 Pender St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,136 (+8%)	19mo	$315,000	$277	48
108 Stratford Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+6%)	11mo	$355,000	$317	47
114 Forrest Ave	0.75mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,148 (+9%)	7mo	$315,000	$274	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-61,800
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-70,448
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22408

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,049 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,563/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,314

Max offer price $262,922

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
118 Farrell Ln Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1280	$1,995	$1.56	2d	1	0.79mi
726 Olde Greenwich Cir Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1188	$2,000	$1.68	44d	1	0.93mi
727 Olde Greenwich Cir Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1296	$2,395	$1.85	43d	1	0.93mi
125 Hillcrest Dr Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1466	$2,000	$1.36	2d	1	0.95mi
136 Wellington Lakes Dr Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	905	$1,693	$1.87	1d	1	1.05mi
136 Wellington Lakes Dr Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,498	$1.50	2d	1	1.05mi
1704 Lafayette Blvd Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1068	$1,699	$1.59	4d	1	1.24mi
1704 Lafayette Blvd Fredericksburg, VA	2.0–3.0	1.0	985	$1,996	$2.03	1d	1	1.24mi
1704 Lafayette Blvd Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	1.0	902	$1,439	$1.60	18d	1	1.24mi
1704 Lafayette Blvd Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	1.0	902	$1,699	$1.88	2d	1	1.24mi
214 Kings Mill Ct Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$2,274	$2.46	1d	13	1.35mi
214 Kings Mill Ct Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	855	$2,229	$2.61	10d	7	1.35mi
130 Springwood Dr Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	2.5	1100	$2,300	$2.09	1d	1	1.35mi
4337 Mine Rd Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.0	860	$1,795	$2.09	24d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $299,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 695-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $324,900 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-05-05
    price $339,000 1274-char remark
12. 2026-04-11
    price $349,000 1274-char remark
13. 2026-03-23
    listed $359,900 Active 1274-char remark
14. 2026-03-18
    historical $359,900 1274-char remark
15. 2000-09-29
    soldstatus $70,000
16. 2000-09-14
    historical
17. 2000-08-02
    listed $69,900
18. 1997-06-25
    soldstatus $68,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,563 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,459 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$897/yr (+$75/mo · 57.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,563
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,967
• − Management: −$1,967
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$7,934
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,904
• After-tax cash flow: $-608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spotsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103640
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,321
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1213
• State rank: #38 of 131 in VA

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #10735

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Spotsylvania County · 138,364 people
• City population: 207,206
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 31,586
• Household income: $110,112
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Spotsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,292 people
• By 2030: 153,092 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 164,270 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 171,000 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 183,080 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 180,412 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spotsylvania

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 45.1% · R 53.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.72%
• Current HPI: 259.5759
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+337.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $299,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-06 Listed $324,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $324,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $339,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $349,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $359,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-18 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-09-29 Sold (MLS) $70,000 MRIS
• 2000-09-14 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-08-02 Listed $69,900 MRIS
• 1997-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,563 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.