21020 W Matsnu Rd · Big Lake, AK 99652

$60,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Other · 26 Days on market

Built 2020 2.45 ac lot ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 2.5 acre lot with opportunity to renovate a fixer upper shipping container home into beautifully modern shipping container home or build a brand new home!

Key facts

• 2.45 acre lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 26 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Utilities: Sewer: Unknown
• Home design: Detached property; Built in 2020
• Exterior features: Approximately 2.45-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Residential property

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $920 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.7% vs local median 3.3% in Big Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#99 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Big Lake Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #93 of 156 statewide, top 66%, 382 students, 74% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $59,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.73%
• DSCR: 3.92
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $65,829
• Equity at exit: $26,979

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.06×
• Total profit: $152,195
• Equity at exit: $41,577

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99652

• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,615 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $193/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $920

Break-even live

Break-even rent $450

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-30
   soldstatus
2. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-09
   price $60,000
4. 2026-04-06
   price $75,000
5. 2026-03-26
   listed $90,000 Active
6. 2025-09-15
   price $75,000
7. 2025-08-18
   price $77,000
8. 2025-07-30
   listed $79,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $193 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $454 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$260/yr (+$22/mo · 134.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$193
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $10,682
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,564
• After-tax cash flow: $8,480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Big Lake

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #20971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Lake, AK
• City population: 4,066
• Population (ZIP): 4,066

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-24.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-04-22 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $60,000 AKMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $75,000 AKMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $90,000 AKMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $75,000 AKMLS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $77,000 AKMLS
• 2025-07-30 Listed $79,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $193 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.