10121 Baron Dr · Castle Point, MO 63136

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1957 5,401 sqft lot $129/sqft · 76% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors!!! Checkout this over performing 2-bedroom property! Tenant occupied at $1000/month, and the tenant pays all utilities. Leased through 11/26. No showings without an accepted contract. Please do not disturb tenants.

Key facts

• 5,401 sq ft lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 70 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 13.0% in Castle Point — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#313 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.50%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $56,153
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: 76.30%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10019 Lord Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0	795 (+4%)	7mo	$37,999	$48	78
10429 Earl Dr	0.46mi	2/1.0	770 (+0%)	1mo	$35,000	$45	77
10348 Earl Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	770 (+0%)	4mo	$35,000	$45	73
10417 Duke Dr	0.46mi	2/1.0	770 (+0%)	7mo	$35,000	$45	72
10236 Monarch Dr	0.18mi	3/1.5 (+1)	850 (+11%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	66
10040 Lord Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0	672 (-12%)	4mo	$10,000	$15	66
10504 Duke Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0	770 (+0%)	9mo	$115,000	$149	65
10117 Royal Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+12%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	60
10117 Duke Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+12%)	4mo	$119,900	$139	59
10175 Cloverdale Dr	0.67mi	2/1.0	792 (+3%)	8mo	$65,000	$82	57
10365 Lord Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+12%)	4mo	$87,000	$101	54
10081 Green Valley Dr	0.73mi	2/1.0	696 (-9%)	10mo	$60,000	$86	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $36,852
• Equity at exit: $48,984

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.76×
• Total profit: $104,108
• Equity at exit: $79,167

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,163 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $839/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $798

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $345	-5% $317	+0% $289	+5% $261	+10% $233
Rent	-10% $197	-5% $243	+0% $289	+5% $335	+10% $381
Rate	-1.0pp $339	-0.5pp $314	base $289	+0.5pp $263	+1.0pp $237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	44d	1	0.06mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	8d	1	0.08mi
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	44d	1	0.23mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	24d	1	0.24mi
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	44d	1	0.29mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	24d	1	0.30mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	24d	1	0.35mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	2d	1	0.38mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	22d	1	0.40mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	4d	1	0.44mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	24d	1	0.51mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	8d	1	0.53mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	24d	1	0.55mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	15d	1	0.56mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	44d	1	0.61mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	24d	1	0.64mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	44d	1	0.64mi
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	22d	1	0.67mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	8d	1	0.71mi
1520 Attica Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,200	$1.13	24d	1	0.72mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	8d	1	0.74mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	3d	1	0.76mi
10557 Castle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,300	$1.27	15d	1	0.77mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	24d	1	0.82mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	24d	1	0.82mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	44d	1	0.85mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	8d	1	0.93mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	44d	1	0.93mi
1255 Bosworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,575	$1.47	11d	1	1.01mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	44d	1	1.05mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	18d	1	1.08mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	15d	1	1.08mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	24d	1	1.10mi
1230 Roxton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	22d	1	1.20mi
10200 Tappan Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	17d	1	1.22mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	24d	1	1.23mi
1130 Forest Home Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,275	$1.24	44d	1	1.29mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	44d	1	1.30mi
1115 Bakewell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	916	$1,300	$1.42	44d	1	1.30mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	24d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $99,000 Active 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Calling all investors!!! Checkout this over performing 2-bedroom property! Tenant occupied at $1000/month, and the tenant pays all utilities. Leased through 11/26. No showings without an accepted contract. Please do not disturb tenants.

16. 2026-02-03
    price $94,900
17. 2025-11-19
    price $101,900
18. 2025-10-17
    listed $104,900 Active
19. 2022-12-02
    soldstatus $97,000
20. 2022-06-21
    soldstatus $35,000
21. 2022-06-17
    soldstatus Closed
22. 2022-04-29
    status Pending
23. 2022-04-24
    listed $37,500 Active
24. 2007-02-22
    soldstatus $69,500
25. 2005-08-08
    soldstatus $25,000
26. 1988-10-01
    soldstatus
27. 1987-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $839 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $960 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$121/yr (+$10/mo · 14.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$839
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,117
• − Management: −$1,117
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,967
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$472
• After-tax cash flow: $2,993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Castle Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #14373

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castle Point, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 19,684
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+296.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $99,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $94,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $101,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Listed $104,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-17 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-29 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-24 Listed $37,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records
• 2005-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1988-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $839 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.