Lot 26R Pine Peak Way · Pigeon Forge, TN 37862

$1

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,056 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 2012 0.39 ac lot $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity to acquire an HOA-owned pool and clubhouse property just minutes from action-packed Pigeon Forge, in the heart of the Great Smoky Mountains. With short-term rentals allowed in the area, this unique property presents exceptional potential for conversion into a high-demand overnight cabin rental. Investors will recognize the value of its prime location, strong tourism traffic, and redevelopment potential in one of Tennessee's most sought-after vacation markets. The property also offers multiple possible uses, including a private mountain residence, boutique rental, or income-producing getaway. Bring your vision and bid with confidence at this Absolute, No Minimum, No Reserve

Key facts

• Hoa-owned pool
• 0.39 acre lot
• Built 2012

Tags

• HOA-OWNED POOL
• SHORT-TERM RENTALS ALLOWED
• PRIVATE MOUNTAIN RESIDENCE
• INCOME-PRODUCING GETAWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $1).
• Cap rate 1869309.6% vs local median 1.1% in Pigeon Forge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#36 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 931 active listings in the ZIP; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $0 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $0 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $0 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 209843.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 1869309.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 6676083.38%
• DSCR: 297049.14
• GRM: 0.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $966,320
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
876 Osprey Way	0.51mi	5/3.0 (-1)	1,852 (-10%)	3mo	$817,500	$441	48
881 Osprey Way	0.52mi	5/3.0 (-1)	1,852 (-10%)	17mo	$870,000	$470	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 354669.07×
• Total profit: $99,307
• Equity at exit: $0

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 766455.06×
• Total profit: $214,607
• Equity at exit: $0

Cash invested: $0 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37862

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Active inventory: 931

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$0
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$0 /mo · $0/yr
• Insurance: −$0
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $1,558

Break-even live

Break-even rent $127

Max offer price $1

Occupancy floor 21%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,558	-5% $1,558	+0% $1,558	+5% $1,558	+10% $1,558
Rent	-10% $1,392	-5% $1,475	+0% $1,558	+5% $1,641	+10% $1,724
Rate	-1.0pp $1,558	-0.5pp $1,558	base $1,558	+0.5pp $1,558	+1.0pp $1,558

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $0
• Closing costs: $0
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   listed $1 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$0
• − Property taxes: −$0
• − Insurance: −$0
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$0
• Taxable income: $19,952
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,788
• After-tax cash flow: $13,905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

Livability — Pigeon Forge

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #6327

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pigeon Forge, TN
• County: Sevier County · 80,402 people
• City population: 21,767
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 21,767
• Household income: $59,792
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 544.0

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.27%
• Current HPI: 297.684
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B