319 Clyde Brown Rd · Ponce De Leon, FL 32455

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 52 Days on market

Built 2022 3.33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 3 Bedroom 2 Bath Home in Central Walton County! This home sits on a gorges 3.33+/- Acre lot that is littered with beautiful Oak Trees, and offers plenty of space between neighbors. Inside the home, is a split floorplan style. The main living area offers a large living room, kitchen with pantry and center island, and a well sized dining area. The master suite boasts a large bedroom with a big walk-in closet, and a master bathroom featuring a double vanity, soaking tub, and large walk-in shower. On the opposite end of the home, you will find the 2 guest rooms and accompanying guest bath. This home is priced very aggressively for this area, so hop on this one fast! Schedule your show

Key facts

• Split floorplan
• Large living room
• 3.33 acre lot

Tags

• 3.33 ACRE LOT
• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• KITCHEN WITH PANTRY
• CENTER ISLAND
• WELL SIZED DINING AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Electricity available; Electric water heater
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Single-story (first-floor living areas)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 3.33 acres; Lot dimensions approximately 210 x 667; Zoned for county, mobile home, and single-family residential

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Multiple first-floor bedrooms (two listed at 14 x 10; others include 14 x 13 and 14 x 8)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Full bath on the first floor (11 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Total of 9 rooms; Laundry on the first floor; Dining room on the first floor; Living room on the first floor; Primary bedroom and primary bathroom
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-278 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#795 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freeport Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 1,123 students, 55% FRL); Emerald Coast Middle School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade A-, #77 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 868 students, 24% FRL); South Walton High School (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,235 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 18% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,632 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.97%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $70,456
• Equity at exit: $158,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $218,027
• Equity at exit: $319,835

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32455

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,396 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $159,619

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-140	-5% $-209	+0% $-278	+5% $-347	+10% $-417
Rent	-10% $-389	-5% $-334	+0% $-278	+5% $-223	+10% $-168
Rate	-1.0pp $-178	-0.5pp $-228	base $-278	+0.5pp $-330	+1.0pp $-383

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 30 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    status Active
19. 2026-05-04
    price $199,900
20. 2026-04-23
    listed $169,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,340
• − Management: −$1,340
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$6,936
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,665
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ponce De Leon

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #795
• US rank: #18236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,903

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Native American 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.45%
• Current HPI: 244.4649
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+17.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $199,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $169,900 CPARMLS