7637 Essington Cir · Centerville, OH 45459

$499,000

8 bd · 1.0 ba · 3,256 sqft · MultiFamily public records

Built 1977 0.46 ac lot Est $524k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

A great 4 unit with 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $747 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $187/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $499k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.9% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#45 in OH, #604 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Centerville City (suburban): math 62% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #163 of 656 in OH (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,581/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 1095% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $499,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.42%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $524,216
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7637 Essington Cir	0.00mi	8/4.0	3,256 (0%)	2mo	$499,000	$153	86
7627 Essington Cir	0.02mi	8/4.0	3,256 (0%)	1mo	$525,000	$161	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-35,306
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $22,285
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45459

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 29.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,581 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$837 /mo · $10,047/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,172
• Net cashflow: $747

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,635

Max offer price $499,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,029	-5% $888	+0% $747	+5% $606	+10% $464
Rent	-10% $306	-5% $527	+0% $747	+5% $967	+10% $1,188
Rate	-1.0pp $998	-0.5pp $874	base $747	+0.5pp $618	+1.0pp $486

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1	$5,580
Total (4 units)			$5,581

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-27
   soldstatus $1,710,000
2. 2026-03-30
   listed $499,000
3. 2026-03-30
   historical
4. 2004-11-19
   soldstatus $200,000
5. 1999-07-16
   soldstatus $179,000
6. 1988-10-04
   soldstatus $122,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,047 · $837/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,047 · $837/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$10,047
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,358
• − Management: −$5,358
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable income: $1,246
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$299
• After-tax cash flow: $8,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centerville City
• NCES district ID: 3904373
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,985
• Composite: 58.44/100
• National rank: #1005
• State rank: #163 of 656 in OH

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #604

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 38,712
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 28,553
• Household income: $89,592
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.27%
• Current HPI: 254.7793
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+1301.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $1,710,000 Public Records
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $499,000 Dayton MLS
• 2004-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1999-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $179,000 Public Records
• 1988-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,047 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.