8008 34th St · Lubbock, TX 79407

$20,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 1981

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Manufactured mobile home in the executive trailer park in Lubbock Texas. 3 bedroom 2 bath. Has bedroom, bath and walk in closet at front of the trailer. Living room and kitchen are open concept with a lot of storage. It has a small and large pantry. There is a long hall down to the two bedrooms and large bathroom . Both rooms have good size closets. The refrigerator and stove will stay. There is an enclosed sunroom as you walk in the front door. There is a small storage in the fenced yard.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Enclosed sunroom
• Fenced yard

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• SMALL PANTRY
• LARGE PANTRY
• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $19,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 79.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 259.85%
• DSCR: 12.56
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.32×
• Total profit: $69,006
• Equity at exit: $2,982

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 26.05×
• Total profit: $140,278
• Equity at exit: $1,729

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,710 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$25 /mo · $300/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $1,213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $175

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 24%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,226	-5% $1,220	+0% $1,213	+5% $1,206	+10% $1,199
Rent	-10% $1,078	-5% $1,145	+0% $1,213	+5% $1,280	+10% $1,348
Rate	-1.0pp $1,223	-0.5pp $1,218	base $1,213	+0.5pp $1,207	+1.0pp $1,202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7541 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,500	$1.16	22d	1	0.62mi
8607 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,749	$1.30	45d	1	0.63mi
7535 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,395	$1.25	45d	1	0.65mi
2603 Harmony Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,749	$1.21	15d	1	0.66mi
2603 Harmony Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,749	$1.21	22d	1	0.66mi
7420 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,500	$1.20	45d	1	1.00mi
7413 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,475	$1.18	22d	1	1.04mi
2511 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,099	$1.45	22d	1	1.08mi
2509 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	22d	1	1.08mi
2168 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	1.13mi
2154 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	22d	1	1.13mi
2055 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,649	$1.14	15d	1	1.13mi
2162 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	1.16mi
2911 Urbana Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,800	$1.24	22d	1	1.19mi
2147 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	22d	1	1.20mi
2140 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,999	$1.38	45d	1	1.22mi
2125 Kirksey Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	15d	1	1.22mi
2143 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	45d	1	1.22mi
2028 Kenwood Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	15d	1	1.22mi
2152 Langford Ave Unit Labs Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,660	$1.14	22d	1	1.22mi
2131 Kokomo Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,500	$1.10	22d	1	1.23mi
2148 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	1.24mi
2139 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,899	$1.31	22d	1	1.24mi
2137 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,700	$1.17	22d	1	1.25mi
7324 26th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	936	$850	$0.91	45d	1	1.26mi
2130 Kokomo Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,199	$1.52	22d	1	1.26mi
2138 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	45d	1	1.29mi
2123 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	22d	1	1.30mi
2132 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	15d	1	1.31mi
2128 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	15d	1	1.32mi
2122 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	15d	1	1.34mi
3518 Turner Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,199	$1.52	45d	1	1.35mi
7222 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,935	$1.33	45d	1	1.36mi
2101 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	45d	1	1.37mi
1919 Langford Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,350	$0.90	45d	1	1.39mi
1919 Langford Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,399	$0.93	45d	1	1.39mi
1918 Langford Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,399	$0.93	15d	1	1.43mi
1903 Langford Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,575	$1.05	15d	1	1.45mi
1903 Langford Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,575	$1.05	45d	1	1.45mi
1903 Langford Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $20,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $20,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $20,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $20,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $20,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $20,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $20,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $20,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $20,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    listed $20,000 Active
14. 2026-05-11
    listed $1,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 4 d/yr ≥99°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,519
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$300
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,642
• − Management: −$1,642
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $15,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,632
• After-tax cash flow: $10,919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1900.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $20,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-11 Listed for Rent $1,000 SHOWMOJO