2419 S Ozark Ave · Joplin, MO 64804

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,940 sqft · Other · 115 Days on market

Built 1968 8,140 sqft lot ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This adorable 3 bedroom 2 bathroom Ranch style home features a bonus living area, sunroom and spacious backyard with 2 extra storage sheds. The kitchen and bathroom have been updated and the backyard is perfect for entertaining.

Key facts

• Bonus living area
• Spacious backyard
• Extra storage sheds

Tags

• BONUS LIVING AREA
• SUNROOM
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• EXTRA STORAGE SHEDS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (freestanding)
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Brick exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes all bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 5.1% in Joplin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#318 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Joplin Schools (urban): math 30% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #231 of 324 in MO (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastmorland Elem. (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 244 students, 68% FRL); East Middle (math 22% / reading 40%, grade F, #279 of 391 statewide, top 72%, 597 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.7%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.98%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $12,530
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $93,790
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64804

• Rents YoY: 15.7%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,881 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,086/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,297

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $555	-5% $508	+0% $461	+5% $414	+10% $368
Rent	-10% $313	-5% $387	+0% $461	+5% $535	+10% $610
Rate	-1.0pp $544	-0.5pp $503	base $461	+0.5pp $418	+1.0pp $375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2114 S Patterson Ave Joplin, MO	3.0	2.0	1715	$1,700	$0.99	22d	1	0.45mi
2528 E 15th St Joplin, MO	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,750	$1.53	22d	1	0.79mi
2811 E 15th St Joplin, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,500	$1.00	22d	1	0.79mi
2517 Ohio Ave Joplin, MO	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,695	$1.13	22d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-22
   price $165,000
4. 2026-03-26
   status Active
5. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-12
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-01-13
   listed $175,000 Active
8. 2025-08-29
   price $190,000
9. 2025-08-29
   price $190,000
10. 2025-03-25
    price $189,900
11. 2025-03-25
    price $189,900
12. 2025-03-13
    price $195,000
13. 2025-02-17
    listed $200,000 Active
14. 2020-08-11
    soldstatus
15. 2000-05-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,086 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$515/yr (+$43/mo · 47.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,086
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $3,003
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$721
• After-tax cash flow: $4,813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joplin Schools
• NCES district ID: 2916350
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,648
• Composite: 28.82/100
• National rank: #6657
• State rank: #231 of 324 in MO

Livability — Joplin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #14578

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Joplin, MO
• County: Newton County · 37,016 people
• City population: 73,303
• Metro: Joplin, MO
• Population (ZIP): 37,016
• Household income: $62,574
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1082.0

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,033 people
• By 2030: 120,091 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 119,297 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 117,705 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 110,402 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 99,719 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 25.9% · R 72.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.2pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+46.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.80%
• Current HPI: 279.4471
• Rent YoY: ▲ 15.66%
• Metro: Joplin, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-17.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — OGAR
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — OGAR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $165,000 OGAR
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — OGAR
• 2026-03-16 Pending — OGAR
• 2026-03-12 Contingent — OGAR
• 2026-01-13 Listed $175,000 OGAR
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $190,000 SOMO
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $190,000 OGAR
• 2025-03-25 Price Changed $189,900 SOMO
• 2025-03-25 Price Changed $189,900 OGAR
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $195,000 OGAR
• 2025-02-17 Listed $200,000 SOMO
• 2020-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,086 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.