1410 Pennington Rd · Trenton, NJ 08618

$235,000

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,630 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1910 1,742 sqft lot Est $422k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is selling totally AS-IS. It needs a total rehab. It has 5 bedrooms 1 bath. No driveway, just on street parking.

Key facts

• Built 1910
• Listed 116 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy-efficient HVAC

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Natural gas heating and hot water; Public water; Private sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Estimated year built; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Semi-detached; No tidal water on property; Above-grade other structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Five main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Fully finished basement; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $635 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $214k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Ewing Township School District (suburban): math 16% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #358 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,009/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $159k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,850 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.59%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $422,170
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42 Hazelhurst Ave	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-4%)	3mo	$430,000	$276	78
4 New Hillcrest Ave	0.04mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,521 (-7%)	3mo	$385,000	$253	77
35 Rosedale Ave	0.17mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,521 (-7%)	2mo	$425,000	$279	72
37 Hazelhurst Ave	0.11mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,521 (-7%)	7mo	$415,000	$273	71
1011 Parkside Ave	0.28mi	5/2.0	1,714 (+5%)	8mo	$415,000	$242	70
111 Huff Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,592 (-2%)	1mo	$335,000	$210	68
221 Hazelhurst Ave	0.39mi	5/2.0	1,500 (-8%)	7mo	$410,000	$273	60
323 Concord Ave	0.60mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (-2%)	3mo	$258,100	$162	59
605 Concord Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (+6%)	7mo	$450,000	$259	57
224 Hazelhurst Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (-6%)	11mo	$410,000	$268	55
11 Kern Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (-10%)	14mo	$309,900	$212	41
118 Hazel	0.66mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,399 (-14%)	8mo	$340,000	$243	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,301
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $48,813
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08618

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,009 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$412 /mo · $4,938/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $635

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,205

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $768	-5% $702	+0% $635	+5% $569	+10% $502
Rent	-10% $398	-5% $517	+0% $635	+5% $754	+10% $873
Rate	-1.0pp $754	-0.5pp $695	base $635	+0.5pp $575	+1.0pp $513

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
92 Pennwood Dr Ewing, NJ	4.0	3.0	1702	$3,850	$2.26	14d	1	0.37mi
73 Oak Ln #2 Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1886	$2,300	$1.22	14d	1	0.61mi
510 N Hermitage Ave Trenton, NJ	5.0	1.5	1316	$2,500	$1.90	13d	1	0.83mi
1656 Pennington Rd Ewing, NJ	6.0	2.0	1704	$3,900	$2.29	14d	1	0.86mi
130 W Ingham Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1126	$2,000	$1.78	14d	1	1.07mi
319 Rutherford Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	22d	1	1.10mi
117 Browning Ave Ewing, NJ	5.0	2.0	1584	$3,500	$2.21	22d	1	1.12mi
1314 Princeton Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1092	$2,400	$2.20	14d	1	1.19mi
649 W State St Trenton, NJ	5.0	2.0	1870	$2,900	$1.55	13d	1	1.25mi
117 Rutledge Ave Ewing, NJ	4.0	1.0	1260	$2,800	$2.22	22d	1	1.31mi
1008 Terrace Blvd Ewing, NJ	4.0	1.0	1116	$2,850	$2.55	14d	1	1.32mi
1442 W State St Trenton, NJ	5.0	2.5	1956	$3,000	$1.53	13d	1	1.35mi
73 Bellevue Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1950	$2,400	$1.23	14d	1	1.37mi
311 Calhoun St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1516	$2,400	$1.58	44d	1	1.37mi
510 W Hanover St Trenton, NJ	5.0	1.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	14d	1	1.39mi
223 Spring St Trenton, NJ	6.0	2.0	1490	$2,700	$1.81	5d	1	1.39mi
134 Old Rose St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1212	$2,300	$1.90	22d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-01-30
   listed $235,000 Active
2. 2025-02-10
   soldstatus $159,000
3. 2025-02-07
   soldstatus $159,000 Closed 122-char remark

   Show marketing remark (122 chars)

   This home is selling totally AS-IS. It needs a total rehab. It has 5 bedrooms 1 bath. No driveway, just on street parking.

4. 2024-12-31
   historical Active Under Contract 122-char remark

   Show marketing remark (122 chars)

   This home is selling totally AS-IS. It needs a total rehab. It has 5 bedrooms 1 bath. No driveway, just on street parking.

5. 2024-12-08
   listed $159,000 Active 122-char remark

   Show marketing remark (122 chars)

   This home is selling totally AS-IS. It needs a total rehab. It has 5 bedrooms 1 bath. No driveway, just on street parking.

6. 2017-07-25
   historical
7. 2016-08-08
   listed $45,000
8. 1987-04-30
   soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,938 · $412/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,395 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$457/yr (+$38/mo · 9.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$4,938
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,889
• − Management: −$2,889
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $4,219
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,013
• After-tax cash flow: $6,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ewing Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3404920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $73,684
• Composite: 25.48/100
• National rank: #7443
• State rank: #358 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 35,634
• Household income: $50,390
• Rent vs Own: 54.2% rent · 45.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 19% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.54%
• Current HPI: 288.6841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+267.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Listed $235,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $159,000 Public Records
• 2025-02-07 Sold (MLS) $159,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-31 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-08 Listed $159,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-07-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-08-08 Listed $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1987-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,938 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.