1025 Martin #20 · Lakeport, CA 95453

$52,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Land · 51 Days on market

Built 1978 5.70 ac lot $36/sqft · 64% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Conveniently located next to the Lake County Fairgrounds—home to many of the area’s favorite events and entertainment—Fairgrounds Village Mobile Home Park is a beautifully maintained 55+ senior community in the heart of Lakeport. Known for its excellent onsite management and welcoming atmosphere, residents enjoy shared solar to help keep electric costs low, a recreation room with a full kitchen, laundry facilities, and a community garden. Located within the park is this charming 1978 Hillcrest double-wide manufactured home offering 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Recent updates include new vinyl flooring, creating a clean and inviting living space. The home also features

Key facts

• Central heating
• Recreation room
• Community garden

Tags

• SHARED SOLAR
• RECREATION ROOM
• COMMUNITY GARDEN
• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• CENTRAL HEATING
• IN-HOME WASHER AND DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size and assessed values from assessor's data; Living area source: public records; Access via county road; paved road frontage; Directions: Main St to Martin St
• Financial info: Monthly land lease (park rent) applies
• HOA & community: Located in a senior community; Park name: Fairground Village MHP; Park requires manager approval; Pets allowed; Community features include watersports, lake access, fishing, hiking, biking, dog park, rural setting, and mountainous scenery

Exterior

• Parking: One total parking space; One carport space
• Security: Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer; Electricity connected with 220V in kitchen and garage
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home (Hillcrest model); Double body type; Single story; Mobile dimensions approximately 24 ft by 60 ft
• Construction: Mobile home remains on site
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Awning; Patio (covered); Shed on property; Aluminum skirt; Lot is level/flat; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Double oven; Electric stove; Dishwasher; Formica countertops
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Shower-in-tub in bathroom(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: One-level home with side entry; Turnkey condition; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 35.1% vs local median 3.1% in Lakeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#925 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Lakeport Unified (town): math 13% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #451 of 517 in CA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $360 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,440 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.73%
• DSCR: 5.57
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,782
• List price: $52,000
• Delta: -63.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $70,976
• Equity at exit: $7,753

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.27×
• Total profit: $164,088
• Equity at exit: $4,496

Cash invested: $14,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95453

• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $472/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $1,246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $422

Max offer price $52,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,276	-5% $1,261	+0% $1,246	+5% $1,232	+10% $1,217
Rent	-10% $1,088	-5% $1,167	+0% $1,246	+5% $1,325	+10% $1,404
Rate	-1.0pp $1,273	-0.5pp $1,260	base $1,246	+0.5pp $1,233	+1.0pp $1,219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,000
• Closing costs: $1,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Royale Ave Lakeport, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1475	$1,800	$1.22	45d	3	0.59mi
10 Royale Ave #21 Lakeport, CA	2.0	2.0	1225	$2,195	$1.79	45d	1	0.59mi
10 Royale Ave #17 Lakeport, CA	2.0	2.0	1221	$2,100	$1.72	45d	1	0.59mi
595 9th St Lakeport, CA	3.0	2.5	1596	$1,900	$1.19	45d	1	0.60mi
300 Grace Ln Lakeport, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	45d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $52,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $52,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $52,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $52,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $52,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $52,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $52,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $52,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $52,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $52,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $52,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $52,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $52,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $52,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $52,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $52,000 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $52,000 Active 1139-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $472 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $472 · $39/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,913
• − Property taxes: −$472
• − Insurance: −$260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$1,513
• Taxable income: $15,004
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,601
• After-tax cash flow: $11,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeport Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620670
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,332
• Composite: 18.55/100
• National rank: #8912
• State rank: #451 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lakeport

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #925
• US rank: #24236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeport, CA
• County: Lake County · 24,333 people
• City population: 11,741
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 11,741
• Household income: $71,419
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 250.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Native American 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.01%
• Current HPI: 155.5391
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $52,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $472 · +121.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.