602 Wilmer Ave · Richmond, VA 23227

$199,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1982 9,983 sqft lot Est $278k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOW!! Adorable and priced to go now. .This is a well maintained home that is difficult to find in this price range. Priced $13,400 under county assessment. This home has a new roof, new vinyl siding, and replacement windows, new flooring, freshly painted inside-with either 3 or 4 bedrooms/or living room with rear den (not visible from street) which leads to oversize rear deck with private fenced rear yard. A MUST SEE. ..

Key facts

• Large eat in kitchen
• New vanity
• Bonus family room

Tags

• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• LARGE EAT IN KITCHEN
• BONUS FAMILY ROOM
• WALK IN SHOWER
• NEW VANITY
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Composition roof; Frame construction with vinyl siding; Zoned R5
• Construction: Built in (year: Actual); Frame construction; Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Unpaved driveway

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom located on the first floor
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Partially carpeted
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heat; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Dining area; Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-91 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#33 in VA, #793 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Laburnum Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,089 of 1,108 statewide, top 99%, 456 students, 88% FRL); L. Douglas Wilder Middle (math 47% / reading 51%, grade C-, #238 of 342 statewide, top 71%, 761 students, 89% FRL); Henrico High (math 44% / reading 74%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 1,348 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 34% district-wide (54 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Henrico County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $199k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,539 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $277,560
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
408 Winnetka Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,070 (-1%)	10mo	$280,000	$262	76
4907 Edgefield Cir	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,088 (+1%)	3mo	$260,000	$239	76
605 Conley Rd	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,088 (+1%)	9mo	$280,000	$257	70
514 Conley Rd	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,088 (+1%)	17mo	$274,000	$252	64
812 Azalea Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+2%)	17mo	$255,000	$231	63
621 Conley Rd	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,088 (+1%)	20mo	$305,000	$280	62
608 Conley Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,088 (+1%)	22mo	$325,000	$299	61
804 Winnetka Ave	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,033 (-4%)	23mo	$190,000	$184	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-41,012
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-54,905
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23227

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,485 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,654/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,600

Max offer price $182,945

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $-35	+0% $-91	+5% $-147	+10% $-204
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-150	+0% $-91	+5% $-32	+10% $26
Rate	-1.0pp $9	-0.5pp $-40	base $-91	+0.5pp $-142	+1.0pp $-195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
628 Windomere Ave Richmond, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	750	$1,685	$2.25	3d	6	0.07mi
800 Brook Hill Rd Unit 722 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	45d	1	0.26mi
806 Brook Hill Rd Unit 432 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	997	$1,150	$1.15	45d	1	0.29mi
812 Brook Hill Rd Unit 1633 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	997	$1,200	$1.20	45d	1	0.30mi
5604 Crenshaw Rd Unit 1533 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	45d	1	0.32mi
835 Winnetka Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	980	$1,775	$1.81	25d	1	0.42mi
6001 Grammarcy Cir Richmond, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	830	$1,395	$1.68	45d	1	0.48mi
4903 Chamberlayne Ave #1 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	780	$1,150	$1.47	45d	1	0.66mi
5501 Pony Farm Dr Richmond, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	794	$1,850	$2.33	3d	133	0.69mi
4812 Chamberlayne Ave Unit 2 Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	720	$1,325	$1.84	19d	1	0.77mi
5701 Pony Farm Dr Richmond, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	794	$2,010	$2.53	3d	52	0.78mi
3810 Chamberlayne Ave Unit B Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	45d	1	1.43mi
3810 Chamberlayne Ave Unit G Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,095	$1.46	19d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   remarks 428-char remark
4. 2026-06-07
   listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,654 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,654 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,654
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,426
• − Management: −$1,426
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,613
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,107
• After-tax cash flow: $16/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #793

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime D- Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 287,109
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 24,925
• Household income: $69,187
• Rent vs Own: 45.1% rent · 54.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1950.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 42% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -332.25%
• Current HPI: 303.5514
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.00%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+282.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $199,000 CVRMLS
• 2009-05-22 Sold (MLS) $115,000 CVRMLS
• 2009-05-22 Sold (MLS) $115,000 CVRMLS
• 2009-03-26 Listed $115,000 CVRMLS
• 2009-03-26 Listed $115,000 CVRMLS
• 1990-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,654 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.