531 Valley Ave · Barstow, CA 92311

$149,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1952 $177/sqft · 42% below area Est $236k · 37% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute and cozy two bedroom one bath home with detached one car garage. Situated on the outskirts of town . Property is fully fenced with a walk through gate and vehicle gate. Association Amenities: None # of RV Spaces: 0NONE Lot Location Type: Standard Location Special Features: None # of Attached Spaces: 0 # of Detached Spaces: 1

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• New flooring
• Spacious lot

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FULLY FENCED
• SPACIOUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.5% in Barstow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#444 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Barstow Unified (town): math 11% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #482 of 517 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $149k implies a 352% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.07%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,279
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -36.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
581 Victor Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0	875 (+4%)	13mo	$270,000	$309	65
650 Chateau Way	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	950 (+13%)	5mo	$260,000	$274	51
631 Chateau Way	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	950 (+13%)	10mo	$340,000	$358	49
640 Chateau Way	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	950 (+13%)	13mo	$290,000	$305	49
1836 Sunrise Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+9%)	5mo	$270,000	$296	43
1832 Sunset St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+9%)	12mo	$230,000	$252	37
1917 Sunrise Rd	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+9%)	19mo	$240,000	$263	35
1844 Sunrise Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+9%)	18mo	$225,000	$247	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,584
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $35,474
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92311

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,689 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $439/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,114

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $539	-5% $497	+0% $454	+5% $412	+10% $370
Rent	-10% $321	-5% $388	+0% $454	+5% $521	+10% $588
Rate	-1.0pp $529	-0.5pp $492	base $454	+0.5pp $416	+1.0pp $377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 Arbor Way Barstow, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	25d	1	0.44mi
1900 Dill Rd Barstow, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,355	$1.52	0d	8	0.70mi
1801 Rimrock Rd Barstow, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,810	$2.34	0d	6	0.84mi
751 Upton Dr Unit 2 Barstow, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	19d	1	1.49mi
761 Upton Dr Unit C Barstow, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,199	$1.50	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $149,000 Active 131-char remark
2. 2016-08-08
   soldstatus $33,000 332-char remark

   Show marketing remark (332 chars)

   Cute and cozy two bedroom one bath home with detached one car garage. Situated on the outskirts of town . Property is fully fenced with a walk through gate and vehicle gate. Association Amenities: None # of RV Spaces: 0NONE Lot Location Type: Standard Location Special Features: None # of Attached Spaces: 0 # of Detached Spaces: 1

3. 2016-04-15
   listed $38,000 332-char remark

   Show marketing remark (332 chars)

   Cute and cozy two bedroom one bath home with detached one car garage. Situated on the outskirts of town . Property is fully fenced with a walk through gate and vehicle gate. Association Amenities: None # of RV Spaces: 0NONE Lot Location Type: Standard Location Special Features: None # of Attached Spaces: 0 # of Detached Spaces: 1

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $439 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$694/yr (+$58/mo · 158.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$439
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $3,162
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$759
• After-tax cash flow: $4,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barstow Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604020
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,505
• Composite: 14.44/100
• National rank: #9430
• State rank: #482 of 517 in CA

Livability — Barstow

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #444
• US rank: #15099

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barstow, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 33,954
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,954
• Household income: $61,862
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1305.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 29% Two or more races 22% Black 15% Native American 3% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.26%
• Current HPI: 316.4858
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.32%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2016-08-08 Sold (MLS) $33,000 CRMLS
• 2016-04-15 Listed $38,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $439 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.