3211 E 5th St · Lubbock, TX 79403

$108,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2021 7,536 sqft lot $94/sqft · 108% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This modern home offers a spacious open layout, perfect for creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. With 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, there is ample space for comfortable living. The convenience of washer/dryer connections ensures that laundry day is a breeze. Park your vehicle in the 1-car garage, providing both security and protection from the elements. The house boasts stylish vinyl plank flooring, adding a touch of elegance to the overall design. Located in Lubbock ISD, this property offers access to quality education for residents. This house is currently leased until July 2026. Contact us today to schedule a viewing and discover the endless possibilities that await you in Northeast Lubbock.

Key facts

• 7,536 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ervin El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 405 students, 97% FRL, charter); Dunbar College Preparatory Academy (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 430 students, 97% FRL, charter); Estacado H S (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 897 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 60% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lubbock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $747 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 9854% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,520 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.41%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,039
• List price: $108,000
• Delta: 107.54%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-13,585
• Equity at exit: $16,103

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-10,995
• Equity at exit: $9,338

Cash invested: $30,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79403

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,086 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,928/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $108,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $147	-5% $117	+0% $86	+5% $55	+10% $25
Rent	-10% $0	-5% $43	+0% $86	+5% $129	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $113	base $86	+0.5pp $58	+1.0pp $30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,000
• Closing costs: $3,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
411 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,200	$1.00	15d	1	0.12mi
804 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,049	$1.02	15d	1	0.20mi
3016 E 3rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$695	$0.71	23d	1	0.22mi
1014 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,030	$1.00	15d	1	0.31mi
312 Beech Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	816	$695	$0.85	23d	1	0.31mi
312 Beech Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	816	$800	$0.98	45d	1	0.31mi
2721 E 3rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	15d	1	0.42mi
2815 E 2nd St Apt 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$625	$0.83	15d	1	0.43mi
2726 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	816	$695	$0.85	23d	1	0.46mi
3611 E 3rd Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,199	$1.04	45d	1	0.50mi
602 Walnut Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	45d	1	0.59mi
2612 E Auburn St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1196	$1,095	$0.92	23d	1	0.67mi
808 Vanda Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	832	$695	$0.84	23d	1	0.68mi
2226 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	45d	1	0.69mi
824 Vanda Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	832	$750	$0.90	45d	1	0.71mi
2211 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	45d	1	0.72mi
2123 E Broadway Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	23d	1	0.72mi
2912 E Baylor St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$695	$0.59	23d	1	0.73mi
2912 E Baylor St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$900	$0.77	45d	1	0.73mi
2117 E Broadway Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	45d	1	0.74mi
3411 E 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,100	$0.79	23d	1	0.74mi
2206 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$975	$0.85	46d	1	0.76mi
1828 E 1st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1011	$695	$0.69	23d	1	0.79mi
1809 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1203	$1,000	$0.83	45d	1	0.83mi
306 Zenith Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,165	$0.90	23d	1	0.83mi
3621 E 15th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,114	$1.08	45d	1	0.83mi
3118 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,150	$1.02	23d	1	0.84mi
3116 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,150	$1.02	23d	1	0.84mi
2924 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,150	$0.92	23d	1	0.84mi
310 Zenith Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,164	$0.90	15d	1	0.85mi
1802 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1096	$875	$0.80	45d	1	0.86mi
1802 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1096	$695	$0.63	23d	1	0.86mi
2608 E Colgate St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	990	$900	$0.91	45d	1	0.87mi
2624 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,330	$1.02	15d	1	0.89mi
1933 E Colgate St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1310	$795	$0.61	23d	1	0.93mi
1808 E Auburn St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	23d	1	0.95mi
1516 E 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	23d	1	0.99mi
1711 E 1st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	23d	1	1.01mi
1918 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,080	$1.05	23d	1	1.01mi
1903 E 15th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	15d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $108,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $108,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $108,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $108,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $108,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $108,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $108,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $108,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $108,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $108,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $108,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $108,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $108,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $108,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $108,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $108,000 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $108,000 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    price $108,000 705-char remark

    Show marketing remark (705 chars)

    This modern home offers a spacious open layout, perfect for creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. With 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, there is ample space for comfortable living. The convenience of washer/dryer connections ensures that laundry day is a breeze. Park your vehicle in the 1-car garage, providing both security and protection from the elements. The house boasts stylish vinyl plank flooring, adding a touch of elegance to the overall design. Located in Lubbock ISD, this property offers access to quality education for residents. This house is currently leased until July 2026. Contact us today to schedule a viewing and discover the endless possibilities that await you in Northeast Lubbock.

19. 2026-05-07
    listed $1,085
20. 2026-04-03
    listed $110,000 Active 705-char remark

    Show marketing remark (705 chars)

    This modern home offers a spacious open layout, perfect for creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. With 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, there is ample space for comfortable living. The convenience of washer/dryer connections ensures that laundry day is a breeze. Park your vehicle in the 1-car garage, providing both security and protection from the elements. The house boasts stylish vinyl plank flooring, adding a touch of elegance to the overall design. Located in Lubbock ISD, this property offers access to quality education for residents. This house is currently leased until July 2026. Contact us today to schedule a viewing and discover the endless possibilities that await you in Northeast Lubbock.

21. 2025-05-01
    historical $1,050
22. 2025-04-24
    historical $1,050
23. 2025-04-23
    listed $1,050
24. 2025-03-29
    listed $1,050
25. 2023-08-29
    historical $1,050
26. 2023-08-10
    listed $1,050
27. 2021-06-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,928 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,976 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$48/yr (+$4/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,050
• − Property taxes: −$1,928
• − Insurance: −$540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,043
• − Management: −$1,043
• − Depreciation: −$3,142
• Taxable loss: −$712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$171
• After-tax cash flow: $1,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,089
• Household income: $47,907
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 26% Black 23% Two or more races 16% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.69%
• Current HPI: 178.9297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10185.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $108,000 LARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed for Rent $1,085 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-03 Listed $110,000 LARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Rental Removed $1,050 RENT.
• 2025-04-24 Rental Removed $1,050 APPFOLIO
• 2025-04-23 Listed for Rent $1,050 RENT.
• 2025-03-29 Listed for Rent $1,050 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-29 Rental Removed $1,050 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-10 Listed for Rent $1,050 APPFOLIO
• 2021-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+69.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,928 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.